Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS La Crosse, WI

March 25, 2007Jackson County, Monroe County, Wisconsin

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2007, 4:59 PM CDT for Jackson County, Monroe County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 31 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2007, 4:59 PM CDT (21:59 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS La Crosse, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Jackson County, WI, Monroe County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 25, 5:05 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	1 S Shamrock, WI	REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 27 ON COUNTY LINE.
Mar 25, 5:05 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	4 N Cataract, WI	REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 27 ON JACKSON AND MONROE COUNTY LINE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 25, 2:54 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 572 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 343 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KARX 252159
SVRARX
WIC053-081-252230-
/O.NEW.KARX.SV.W.0005.070325T2159Z-070325T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
  NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHAMROCK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF BLACK
  RIVER FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CATARACT AND FOUR CORNERS AROUND 500 PM...
  MILLSTON AND I 94 EXIT 128 AROUND 505 PM...
  LAKE WAZEE AND SAND PILLOW AROUND 510 PM...
  POTTERS FLOWAGE AND SEVENTEEN FLOWAGE AROUND 515 PM...
  HATFIELD AND EAST FORK CAMPGROUND AROUND 520 PM...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

LAT...LON 4435 9035 4407 9067 4408 9071 4408 9094
      4419 9089 4422 9086 4442 9075 4442 9032
      4439 9032

$$

RIECK

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KARX 252209
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

WIC053-081-252230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070325T2230Z/
JACKSON WI-MONROE WI-
509 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILLSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLACK
RIVER FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HATFIELD AND POTTERS FLOWAGE AROUND 515 PM...
  EAST FORK CAMPGROUND AND PRAY AROUND 520 PM...

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

LAT...LON 4435 9035 4407 9067 4408 9071 4408 9094
      4419 9089 4422 9086 4442 9075 4442 9032
      4439 9032

$$

RIECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 252217
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
517 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

WIC081-252227-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070325T2230Z/
MONROE WI-
517 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWEST MONROE COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4436 9033 4417 9056 4417 9061 4416 9062
      4416 9089 4424 9083 4426 9083 4442 9074
      4442 9032

$$

WIC053-252230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070325T2230Z/
JACKSON WI-
517 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVENTEEN FLOWAGE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
BLACK RIVER FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PRAY AROUND 525 PM...

LAT...LON 4436 9033 4417 9056 4417 9061 4416 9062
      4416 9089 4424 9083 4426 9083 4442 9074
      4442 9032

$$

RIECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 252230
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

WIC053-252240-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070325T2230Z/
JACKSON WI-
530 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASETRN JACKSON COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 530 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4436 9033 4417 9056 4417 9061 4416 9062
      4416 9089 4424 9083 4426 9083 4442 9074
      4442 9032

$$

RIECK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 2:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 2:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AND VERY PRONOUNCED CLEAR SLOT HAS ALLOWED STRONG
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR. LAPS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALREADY IN THE
1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG RANGE IN THE CLEAR SLOT. 18Z SPECIAL MPS
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A WEAK CAP...BUT THAT SHOULD BE OVERCOME WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING.

12Z 25MAR07 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...BUT SO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE BOUNDARIES
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM IN THE
SHORT TERM...THEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS IN THE LATER PERIODS.

PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING BETWEEN 3 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED MORE TIMING INTO THE GRIDS TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH WITH READINGS
ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE ROCKIES. CYCLOGENESIS
LOOKS TO OCCURS BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DETAILS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN....BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH A RATHER
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE KEPT MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW STRUGGLING IN HANDLING THE LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OPERATIONAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 06Z GFS HAVING 2 SEPARATE VORTICITY CENTERS...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP ONE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THUS HAS A SLOWER TREND. THESE SOLUTIONS DIFFER FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY WITH THE FORECAST GIVING THESE SPREAD OF OUTCOMES...STILL
KEEPING THE SYSTEM COMING OUT MORE IN ONCE PIECE LATER IN THE WEEK.
NONE THE LESS WITH THESE DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW...
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ONCE MAIN
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

RABERDING

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 1:15 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
115 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-261000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
115 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES...WILL LEAD TO A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LINGER OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DISCERN IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A CONFERENCE CALL WAS HELD THIS AFTERNOON.

DAS/RIECK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:53 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
453 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             1 N FOUR CORNERS        44.08N 90.91W
03/25/2007  E0.50 INCH       MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN DIMES REPORTD.

&&

SHEA

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:53 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
453 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             1 N FOUR CORNERS        44.08N 90.91W
03/25/2007  E0.50 INCH       MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN DIMES REPORTD.

&&

SHEA

The office that day

Everything else NWS La Crosse, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Monroe	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.