Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS51 KALY 021919
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

NYC021-039-111-021928-
/O.EXP.KALY.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070602T1915Z/
COLUMBIA NY-GREENE NY-ULSTER NY-
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ULSTER...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
AND SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 315 PM EDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
GREENE...NORTHEASTERN ULSTER...AND SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES 
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4162 7410 4159 7413 4160 7422 4164 7426
      4160 7437 4174 7456 4187 7445 4202 7478
      4216 7446 4211 7429 4210 7416 4224 7413
      4225 7363 4200 7366 4207 7394 4159 7396
      4158 7404

$$
WASULA/FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A WARM...HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS OF 0730Z...WITH EVEN SOME
TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO LINE UP RATHER
WELL WITH 00Z/02 GFS DEPICTION OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DOT THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP...AND HEAT THE LOW LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. 00Z/02 NAM
SEEMS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...OWING TO HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX CAPES REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. THE GFS
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...WITH INITIALIZED DEWPOINTS MUCH MORE IN LINE
WITH 06Z OBS...AND GENERATING MAX CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO SSW WINDS NEAR THE SFC...AND A MORE WSW/W WIND AT
5000-8000 AGL...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO
ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
OHIO WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING TSTM POTENTIAL.
THUS...SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN
SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF TRIGGERING
MECHANISM...OTHER THAN STRONG INSTABILITY. THUS...HAVE INDICATED CHC
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE MAV
MOS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD MAXES AGAIN IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT/...TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT...AND THUS...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHC THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. FOR MINS...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO MAV MOS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N INTO
REGION...EXPECT JET MAX...OVER SE CANADA...TO INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...POSSIBLY MORE THAN CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. IN
ADDITION...WEAK FRONT MAY REACH NORTHERN AREAS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK
TO THE N...PROVIDING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER/TSTM
INITIATION. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP...AND BECOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE BY SUN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT. IN ADDITION...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOMING RATHER LIGHT...EXPECT SLOW MOVEMENT TO
TSTMS...FURTHER ENHANCING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED HIGH CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AREAL COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY BE RATHER LOW IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVE...AS SUBSIDENCE WELL N OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM
BARRY REMNANTS OCCURS. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO TRANSITION INTO A
STEADIER RAIN BY LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THUS...HAVE INDICATED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE SUN NIGHT. AS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...AGAIN...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO MAV MOS...ALTHOUGH HAVE
INDICATED SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR SUN NIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED
THICKER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON...HAVE RAISED MOST POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH EXPECTATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDER THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME...GIVEN POTENTIAL MID
LEVEL WARMING WITH REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVELS
WILL COOL OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IS
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
BETWEEN SUN NIGHT AND MON...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER SE/E LOW LEVEL
WINDS MATERIALIZE.

MON NT-FRI...FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WARMING
TREND FOR WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TODAY THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. VISIBILITY WAS STILL MVFR BY 13Z IN SOME AREAS DUE
TO HAZE. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT ONLY BARELY
SO...BY 15Z. AGAIN...SOME CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS BY 16Z WITH SOME ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 16Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSHS AND CBS IN THE TAFS BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z-04Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TSRAS LOOKS TO BE FROM KALB NORTH
AND EAST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NRN NY-NRN VT AND
NH BORDER. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AS FOG
DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 3-5SM AS WINDS BECOME
CALM. VISIBLITY MAY DRO TO IFR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW SITES.

.SUN...AM MVFR/IFR FG HZ...PM VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...MVFR CIG. RAIN LIKELY.
.TUE...MVFR CIG. CHANCE SHOWERS.
.WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ALONG WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY WILL DROP TO 40
TO 70 PERCENT...WITH RH RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT AND
THEN DROP TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SOUTH
TOM SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION COMING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE AT LOW FLOWS RESULTING FROM A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST VALUES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY... WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES ON SUNDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING OF A FEW SMALL
STREAMS AND SOME NUISANCE URBAN/SMALL STREAM PONDING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE WORKS NORTH UP THE EAST COAST AND INTERACTS WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...RK
FIRE WEATHER...JQ
HYDROLOGY...JQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-031815-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY...AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN CONNECTICUT...
LITCHFIELD.

IN NEW YORK...
ALBANY...CLOUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...GREENE...HAMILTON...
HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA..SCHENECTADY...
SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...
BERKSHIRE.

IN VERMONT...
BENNINGTON...AND WINDHAM.