Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA TO TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEEKEND FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY (ULSTER AND
DUTCHESS)...UNTIL 01Z.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR. A CELL IN NORTHEAST WARREN COUNTY QUICKLY
PULSE TO A VIL OF 57 IN JUST A COUPLE OF SCANS THIS ACTUALLY WAS
JUST AHEAD OF THE VIL OF THE DAY WHICH IS 54. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. (PLEASE REFER OUR INTERNET MAP FOR ALL
CURRENT WARNINGS). CELLS LOOK TO BE POPPING OVER SCHOHARIE COUNTY AS
THE CU FIELD LOOKS HEALTHY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LAPS SHOW SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE CATSKILLS WHERE THE
ACTIVITY IS FORMING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE CONVECTION.
WITH MORE HEATING THAN EXPECTED...THE STORMS LOOK TO GROW ROBUST
DESPITE A WEAK WIND FIELD.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION BUT MINI BOWS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ALSO...AS WE INCREASE THE WIND ALOFT...SOME
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME. THAT IS WHY THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONCE WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE...AND MOST THUNDER...SHOULD GO AWAY BY LATE EVENING. THE
FRONT WHICH WILL STILL INTERACT WITH THE RR REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...WILL TEND TO STALL BRIEFLY...AND COULD FORM A VERY WEAK
BAROCLINIC LEAF OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WILL LINGER POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT MOST PLACES...AND EVEN SLIGHT POPS TO OUR SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY.

SLOWLY...BUT SURELY...COOLER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
VIA A NORTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. H8 TEMPS WILL COOL FROM THEIR
CURRENT HIGH TEENS RANGE...TO ABOUT 10C LOCALLY.

WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WE STILL ARE LOOKING FOR
A FANTASTIC LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD WEATHER SHOULD LAST INTO LABOR DAY AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL EAGERLY AWAIT TO PRANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT CONCERN THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION MIGHT
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO STAY TO NORTH AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAN THE ON GOING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AND GREAT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUPPORTS A VCSH AND A CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUP IN ALL AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS...THE PROBABILITY FOR
A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE AIRPORTS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME...AND
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF/WHEN A THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING TOWARD
KGFL...KALB AND KPOU. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND INCLUDE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS
DIME SIZE HAIL.

AFTER THE STORMS WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...THE GROUND WILL BE
LIGHT...THE CLOUDS COULD THIN ENOUGH ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG ISSUES ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE IT COULD BRIEFLY
GO DOWN TO IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION PROBLEMS
FORESEEN.

SAT THRU SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH.
TUE...VFR NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
MORE RAPID DRYING WILL MOVIE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 80 TO 95
PERCENT RANGE...AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER THE
NORMAL RH DIURNAL TRENDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE LOW ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WEATHER HAS BEEN DRY
OVER MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
EFFECT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.  LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WHILE
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE
SCATTERED RAINFALL THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE THE FLOW ON
SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

AMENDED TO ADD INFO ON THE NEAR TEARM...A SEVERE WATCH ISSUED.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
311100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
327 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EAST CENTRAL CATSKILLS EAST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR IN NEW YORK ALBANY...COLUMBIA...
FULTON...GREENE...HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...
SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
IN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM. AND IN
MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE.

CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-311100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
327 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTERLY AT 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

NYZ042-043-301900-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
206 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF
CHESTERTOWN...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HULETTS LANDING BY 245 PM EDT
HAGUE BY 250 PM EDT
8 MILES NORTH OF WHITEHALL BY 300 PM EDT

NAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
229 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

NYZ042-043-301900-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
229 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST WARREN AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
HAGUE TO HULETTS LANDING...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
NORTH OF WARRENSBURG TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITEHALL...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HULETTS LANDING BY 235 PM...
HAGUE BY 245 PM EDT.

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