Wind Advisory 33, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 251357
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

AKZ020-021-024-260115-
/X.EXA.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071126T0000Z-071126T1200Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ027-260115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071125T2100Z-071126T1200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-260115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071125T2100Z-071126T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AST
MONDAY WEST OF YAKUTAT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AST
MONDAY WEST OF YAKUTAT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ025-026-028-260115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071126T0000Z-071126T1200Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-023-260115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071125T2100Z-071126T1200Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ029-260115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071126T0300Z-071126T1200Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
457 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 260031
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

AKZ020-021-024>026-028-261200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1200Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
331 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 300 AM AST MON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-023-027-261200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1200Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
331 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 300 AM AST MON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-261500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
331 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 300 AM AST MON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ029-261200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.071126T0300Z-071126T1200Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
331 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 300 AM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 261152
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

AKZ020>027-261300-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1200Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...
PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
252 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ028-029-261500-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
252 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 AM AST THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-261500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
252 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 AM AST THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 261319
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007


AKZ017-028-029-261430-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-071126T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...
HYDER
419 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...CONVECTIVE TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS
TIME AND SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WIND ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS
FOR SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON.  SNOW LEVEL WITHIN 1000 FT OF SEA
LEVEL NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND AT THIS TIME...LOWERING TO
NEAR SEA LEVEL IN THE VICINITY OF SKAGWAY OVERNIGHT.  TWO LOWS
SYNOPTICALLY TO THE WEST ARE BEING STUDIED THIS MORNING.
THEIR INTERACTION IS IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A WIND
EVENT SUN.

LOW ONE IS 973 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM E OF DUTCH HARBOR.  THIS
LOW HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY.

LOW TWO IS JUST FORMING FROM AN OPEN WV 700 NM S OF
DUTCH HARBOR...AND ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
AND THE GOES LOOP IS HIGHLY CYCLOGENETIC AND TRACKING
ENE.  IT SHOULD DEEPENING TODAY AT AS RATE OF ABOUT 20 MB
IN 18 HRS.

THESE TWO LOWS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT CYCLONICALLY
INTERACT...OR WHAT ONE MIGHT CALL DUMBELL AROUND ONE ANOTHER.
LOW ONE IS STILL THE DEEPER FEATURE AND AT PRESENT WILL
SEND LOW TWO ON THE WIDER ARC.  HOWEVER...AS LOW
TWO DEEPENS THEY WILL CHANGE ROLLS. BY 12Z SUN LOW TWO
WILL BE DOWN TO 967 MB WITH LOW ONE LITTLE CHANGED FROM
973 MB...AND LOW TWO WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY AND SENDING
LOW ONE DISSIPATING INTO BRISTOL BAY.  THE TRACK ON
LOW ONE DOES BECOME LESS IMPORTANT FOR US TONIGHT BUT
IS HELPING TO FEED A COLD AIRMASS FROM THE BERING TO LOW
TWO AND THEREFORE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STRONG THERMAL
CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OF LOW
TWO.

GOOD SHORT RANGE CONSENSUS BETWEEN NAM AND GFS THROUGH
00Z MON AND THE 12Z RUN OF THESE MODELS USED AS GUIDANCE.
UNUSUAL SPREAD BETWEEN UKMET AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT RANGE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TWO.

SNOW LEVEL WITHIN 1000 FT OF SEA LEVEL NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND AT THIS TIME...LOWERING TO NEAR SEA LEVEL IN THE
VICINITY OF SKAGWAY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT
THROUGH WED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
ANTICIPATED. A LOW IN THE 960S WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN
THERE THROUGH MON...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO EJECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUE WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUN NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MON. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF AND CENTRAL
COASTAL AREAS SUN NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF AND WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF AN ARCTIC
HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE GFS
TRACKS THAT HIGH A BIT FURTHER WEST AND ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT INCREASES
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ALL
SNOW FROM JUNEAU-GUSTAVUS NORTH BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECT QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...EXCEPT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES FROM
JUNEAU-GUSTAVUS NORTH WITH ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
REGION.

OVER THE GULF...EASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN
NIGHT STILL LOOK GOOD WITH SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING BY MON NIGHT. OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS...NORTHERLIES WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TO GALES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
GALES OR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS (60 MPH OR HIGHER) OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD AND FROM SITKA SOUTH ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT.
WINDS AT 850 MB INCREASE TO AROUND 75 KT MON NIGHT. MAY CONSIDER
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 023 AND ZONES 027-029 FROM
6 PM SUN THROUGH 4 AM MON AFTER REVIEWING THE 18Z MODEL RUNS.
WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ZONE 026 AND POSSIBLY ZONE
025 OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING GALES OVER THE
GULF...SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE INSIDE WATERS...AND RAIN INTO THE
PANHANDLE EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE ALL SNOW IS LIKELY.

BEYOND WED...NO CHANGES WILL MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE TOO LARGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE. THE GFS BRINGS THE PANHANDLE INTO A
COLD REGIME WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH FOR LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR WELL EAST OF
THE PANHANDLE AND IN A RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BY FRI BUT DOES NOT ADVERTISE THE EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES
DEPICTED BY THE MODEL...WHICH IS GOOD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVY...ZONE 18 UNTIL 3 PM
MARINE...SCA...PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052

JT/TAR