Wind Advisory 32, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 242335
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007



AKZ018-250045-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-071125T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
235 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS PARALLEL TO SE AK
COAST AT 19Z AND IS ABOUT 100-125 NM OFFSHORE. 90KT SLY JETSTREAM
BLOWING PARALLEL TO FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES FRONT TO YAKUTAT
BY 00Z AND SITKA ABOUT 03Z. BREEZY CONDS ALG FRONT AND WILL
EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT ZONE UNTIL 3 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOW MOVING FRONT. CAPE SUCKLING BUOY WINDS SLOWLY DROPPING OFF
BUT SOLID GALES OBSERVED AT CAPES FAIRWEATHER AND EDGECUMBE
BUOYS. SEAS IN THE 15-20 FT RANGE. RAIN WITH FRONT IS NOW
WIDESPREAD ACROSS PANHANDLE. PRECIP STARTED VERY LIGHT MOST
PLACES BUT IS MODERATE IN INTENSITY /0.10 TO 0.20 PER HR/ IN
YAKUTAT CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
WRANGELL DESCRIBED LOCAL VERY DENSE FOG OVER THE WATER MAKING
BOATING DIFFICULT. EXPECT FOG TO THIN AND LIFT AS RAIN INCREASES
THIS AFTN.

USING GFS...FRONT WEAKENS AND SLIDES INLAND OVER NIGHT. MAIN SFC
LOW WITH THIS FRONT IS NEAR HOMER BUT A VORTICITY CENTER WEST OF
SITKA ALONG 140W IS EVIDENT IN SATELIITE IMAGERY. MODELS SWING
ASSOCIATED LONG VORT LOBE INLAND OVERNIGHT FOR CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS PCPN TURNS SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING RAIN RATES MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. 850MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
CELSIUS AHEAD OF FRONT DROP TO ABOUT -4C TO -6C SAT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOWERING TO AT OR BELOW 1000 FT MSL IN SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND SAT IMPACTING HIGHWAY FCSTS. TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER PANHANDLE DURING THE SAT TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE AIR MASS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH BE DECREASING SAT HOWEVER SMCR CRITERIA
FOR WAVE HEIGHT /10FT/ WILL LIKELY BE MET INTO SAT AFTERNOON. TA

.LONG RANGE...ON SUN NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN
STARTS WITH A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH A 500 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF AK. THE RIDGE THEN MOVES
INLAND AND THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF ON MON.
THE 12Z ECMWF RUN BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE DEEPER AND MORE
EASTERLY LOW PROJECTED IN THE 00Z CYCLE BUT IS STILL A BIT FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN OTHER MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE GULF OF AK SO WILL USE THE MEAN SOLUTION FOR LONG WAVE
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE FIRST UPPER LOW FILLS AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
ON TUE. A SECOND UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GULF MID WEEK. BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK MOST MODELS BUILD A STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTERIOR ALASKA BETWEEN 140W AND 150W. AGAIN
THE ECMWF HAS THE MOST EASTERLY SOLUTION BUT LESS SO THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF AND
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY MON WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA AND GALES OVER MUCH OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. A SECOND WEAKER FRONT SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE OVER SE AK ON
WED. STEADY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY EACH FRONT WITH SHOWERS BETWEEN
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO SHUT OFF
MOST PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADV ZONE 17 THRU 3 PM FRI
MARINE...GALES CAPE DECISION TO CAPE SUCKLING. SMCA ELSW EXCEPT S
LYNN...STEPHENS...AND CHATHAM.