Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 100009
CWFAJK
 
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY
 
WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.
 
PKZ098-101400- 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN THE YUKON THROUGH WED
PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW AND FREEZING SPRAY NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON THU.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ011-101400- 
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ012-101400- 
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ013-101400- 
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ021-101400- 
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ022-101400- 
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. SNOW.
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ031-101400- 
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ032-101400- 
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ033-101400- 
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.  
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ034-101400- 
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ035-101400- 
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...
GUSTS TO 40 KT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT LATE. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
 
$$ 
 
PKZ036-101400- 
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
 
$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...OLD PARENT LOW HAS BEEN VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND CURRENTLY HAS A SURFACE
LOW OF ABOUT 1014 MB 100 NM ESE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ESE AND ABT 12Z REACHING A POINT 60 NM W
OF SITKA.  WHILE THIS LOW TRACKS TO ESE IT WILL TRAIL A
GROWING INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO SEWARD.

NEXT IMPORTANT CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.  WHAT HAS BEEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
WILL BE MOVED EAST BY A STRONG AND LARGE SCALE RIDGE ALOFT.
12Z TUE THE  RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING N FROM THE NPAC TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA.  THE ARCTIC AMS
IN THE AK INTERIOR WILL BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD GEN GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS AS FAR EAST
AS LYNN CANAL MON NIGHT.

MODELS...ONE PREFERENCE FOR THE NAM IS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR DUE TO THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK.  THE NAM TYPICALLY GIVES A MORE INTENSE AND REALISTIC
GRADIENT.  THE THE NEW HIGH RES GFS MAY HELP BUT TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES ARE PRESENTLY PREVENTING THEIR USE.  OTRW
A HYBRID OF GFS AND NAM IS BEING USED.

.LONG RANGE...WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE GULF INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COLD...DRY...AND
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
RANGE.

A STRONG 1045 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON
SUPPORTED BY THE GULF RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  THIS GRADIENT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW AREAS WILL BE OF
GREATEST CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
-20 AND COLDER WILL SINK SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR MIDWEEK...WHICH
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PUSH A WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF THEN INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AM STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS
WAVE WILL SURVIVE ITS TREK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST.  ONGOING
CHANCE POPS FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS WAVE.

FOR THE WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.  AGAIN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
ANY WAVES WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS THAN CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVY...ZONES 20>26...29
      ...WIND ADVY...ZONES 17>19

MARINE...GALE...PKZ011>013-051
      ...SCA...PKZ021-022-031-034>036-041>043-052-053
FCF/JT/KJH