Gale Warning 34, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW NOW INLAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LARGE AREA OF OPEN
CELL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BUT NOT IN
MODEL SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR. LARGE LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA IS
TRACKING EAST WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. GRADIENT PACKING
BETWEEN THE INTERIOR HIGH AND THE BC LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND...OWING TO THE SOURCE REGION OF THE RESULTANT
AIRMASS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE. ATYPICAL VERY STRONG WINDS NOTED AND KLEHINI ALL
MORNING LONG WSW AT 25KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE HIGH 30S.
ALSO STRONG GALES WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS IN LYNN CANAL. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING BETWEEN CAPE
FAIRWEATHER AND ICY CAPE AS WELL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AND THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR FROM THE
INTERIOR TO ALL OF THE PANHANDLE BUT WITH A DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND EXPIRATION OF WIND ADVISORIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AM CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORY FOR
ZONE 25 NOT AS A TAKU EVENT BUT AS A GENERIC OUTFLOW EVENT.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH PRECIPITATION RETREATING SOUTH AND
EAST AS WELL AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
FROM THE WEST. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED KAMCHATKA LOW AND DISCUSSED
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG RANGE...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY LATE THU. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES BUT THE MEAN TENDS TO MOVE THE RIDGE A LITTLE SLOWER
WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE RIDGE
STALLS AND FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IT. SOME BRIEF SHARPENING
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OCCURS BETWEEN TROUGHS...BUT BY MON ITS
POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WHICH RESULTS IN ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY AS SNOW...WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN
GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI. THICKNESSES
ARE SLOW TO RISE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS IN NORTHWEST
CANADA SO LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL KEEP FROZEN PRECIPITATION GOING
IN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS MAY BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO RAIN BY
SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED THAT WOULD
ENHANCE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY...17>19 THRU 9AM WED WIND ADVSRY...26-28-29
MIDNITE TONIGHT THRU NOON WED WIND CHILL ADVSRY...18 THRU 9AM WED

MARINE...STORM...12-13 GALE...11-31-36-43-51-52
SMCR...21-22-32-33-34-35-41-42

FCF/CFD