Storm Warning 50, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 230035
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231815-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A DEVELOPING STORM MOVING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO 965 MB AND BE WITHIN 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA SUN
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND TURN EASTWARD MAKING LAND
FALL OVER CENTRAL SE AK LATE SUN.

$$

PKZ310-231815-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 231249
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240700-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A STORM FORCE LOW ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE CHARLOTTES WILL MOVE NE
AND COME ONSHORE JUST N OF CAPE DECISION BY THIS EVENING...THEN
REACH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-240700-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 240619
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
966 MB STORM NEAR SITKA WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER FREDERICK SOUND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY ON MON
FROM THE SW FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WEATHER FRONT THAT MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ310-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1200 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THREE SEPARATE
STRONG LOWS LOCATED IN THE GULF AND NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THE FIRST
OF THESE LOWS IS A 975 MB STORM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.  AN OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO A SECOND LOW LOCATED NEAR 48N
140W.  THIS SECOND LOW IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS DIXON ENTRANCE.  THE THIRD LOW IS SLIDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE ALASKAN PENINSULA.

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF MARINE WATERS AS WELL
AS LINCOLN ROCK AND CAPE DECISION.  ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
BEING REPORTED AT SITKA...KETCHIKAN/METLAKATLA...AND YAKUTAT.
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR MIX
WITH RAIN.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN
HYDER...HAINES AND SKAGWAY.  HAINES CONTINUES UNDER HEAVY
SNOWFALL WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER-MILE.  SNOW HIGHLIGHTS HAVE
BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.

AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY PICK BACK UP
TONIGHT.  THE SECOND LOW...DIRECTED TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE DEEPENS
TO AROUND 973 MB OVERNIGHT.  MODELS DEPICT AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WITH WARNING GUSTS PROBABLE FOR ZONES 27 AND 28.
WILL EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
CLARENCE AND MARINE 41.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO FALL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NORTH...THEN WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  WILL
GO WITH A MIX OR A MIX BECOMING SNOW OVERNIGHT.  LYNN CANAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO WARM. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE SECOND LOW CENTER
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHOULD STICK TO RAIN WHILE INLAND PORTLAND
CANAL/HYDER WILL SEE SNOW.

.LONG RANGE...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SE AK THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM N POLE JUST EAST OF
DATELINE. LONG WAVE RIDGE JUST OFF CONUS W COAST. RESULT IS
STRONG AND WET STORM TRACK THROUGH GULF AK. SEVERAL VERY DEEP SFC
LOWS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP FROM WARM WAVES AROUND 40N AND BARREL
TOWARD SE AK WITH HIGH WINDS...HEAVY SEAS...AND PLENTY OF PRECIP.
SYSTEMS ARE TAPPING INTO JUICY TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
LOCATION OF RAIN-SNOW LINES WILL BE ANOTHER TRICKY PROBLEM IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

FAVORING GFS MODEL AGAIN TODAY BASED ON ITS ACCURATE
INITIALIZATION OF ALL UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. TODAYS RUN IS A BIT
FASTER ON DETAILS THROUGH TUE...AS IS ECMWF AND SREF...SO I WILL
NUDGE GRID FORECASTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. PANHANDLE WILL BE IN
BETWEEN FRONTS SAT NIGHT BUT THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY SUN. LOW
CENTER DEVELOPING TODAY AT 38N 177W IS FCST TO TRAVEL 40KTS TO BE
JUST OFF DIXON ENTRANCE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE DEEPENING TO 960 MB.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GREATEST OVER SRN PANHANDLE... ALONG WITH GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS ALONG S COAST AND SRN CLARENCE STR. APPEARS TO BE A
WRM CORE SYSTEM SO FRZG LEVELS WILL BUMP UP SOME AND MELT LOW
LEVELS SNOW...AGAIN MAINLY S HLF PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY AGGRIVATE
HYDRO SITUATION SUN INTO MON.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LOW CENTER AIMING TOWARD SE AK MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THIS ONE IS SHOWING BROAD AREA OF STORM
FORCE SE WIND AHEAD OF FRONT. HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR IS FOR
NORTHERN ZONES INSTEAD...ESP YAKUTAT. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK KEEP POPS VERY HIGH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVES WEST
ACROSS THE GULF THU AND IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SRN QN CHARLOTTE SOUND WHICH MAY ACTUALLY HELP REVERSE THE
FLOW ALF TO EASTERLY AND HELP DRY OUT PANHANDLE BRIEFLY BUT NOT
BANKING ON IT YET.  TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW WARN...ZONE 19
         SNOW ADVY...ZONES 18-29
         WIND ADVY...ZONES 17-22-23-26-27-28-29
         HI WIND WARN...ZONES 27-28 TONIGHT

MARINE...STORM WARN...ZONES 51-52
         GALE WARN...ZONES 33-35-36-41-42-43-53-310
         SMCR...ELSEWHERE