Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2007

Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

January 20, 2007

NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Jan 20, 2007, 1:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 18 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 20, 2007, 1:00 PM AKST (22:00 UTC)
Expired
Jan 21, 2007, 6:55 AM AKST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 210311 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211600-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
OUTLOOK. ANOTHER DEEP LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY.    

$$

PKZ041-211600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL.  
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-211600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO
24 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL.  
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-211600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
33 FT SUBSIDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-211600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
600 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

UPDATED WIND

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT
SUBSIDING TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-211600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
600 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

UPDATED WIND

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$
3 follow-up statements
000 
FZAK52 PAJK 210702 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211600-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
OUTLOOK. ANOTHER DEEP LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY.    

$$

PKZ041-211600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL.  
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-211600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO
24 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT
SUBSIDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL.  
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-211600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
33 FT SUBSIDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-211600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1000 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

UPDATED FOR THUNDERSTORMS

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT LATE.
RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT
SUBSIDING TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-211600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1000 PM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

UPDATED FOR THUNDERSTORMS

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK52 PAJK 211245
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220615-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE.
A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY.   OUTLOOK. A LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
TUESDAY.    

$$

PKZ041-220615-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE FORCE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-220615-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-220615-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 33 FT SUBSIDING TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-220615-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

...STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 32 FT SUBSIDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING
TO 17 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-220615-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING
TO 16 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK52 PAJK 212056
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE.
A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY.   OUTLOOK. A LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
TUESDAY.    

$$

PKZ041-221500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 23 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE FORCE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-221500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 25 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-221500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-221500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING
TO 17 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-221500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1155 AM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING
TO 16 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 20, 6:00 AM AKST, 7 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 20, 6:00 AM AKST, 7 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT JAN 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LARGE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND YAKUTAT.
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
FORECAST WILL LARGELY USE THE GFS-40.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TIGHT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AND THE ACCOMPANYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THE
FRONT MOST RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ZONE 29. COLD
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF ZONES 18 AND
19 SO SNOW WILL LAST LONGER THERE. THE YAKUTAT ZONE WILL LIKELY
SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST AT WHICH TIME...SNOW SHOULD BECOME RAIN.

.LONG RANGE...MODELS AGAIN DIVERGING STARTING IN THE MID RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE. ALL SEEM TO AGREE ALONG THE LINES OF A TRAILING
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREAD ACROSS SOMEWHERE GENERALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY...BUT LOCATION
AND TIMING ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. ALSO A SECOND DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS RIGHT NOW
BEING SHOWN WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS AND DEPTHS.  AT THIS TIME
SINCE CURRENT GRIDS FALL WITHIN THE RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE
LITTLE IN WAY OF PATTERN CHANGES TO MID AND LONG RANGE SITUATION.

THERE FORE AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LATER FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE WORKED ON SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
PRECIPITATION FIELD AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE LONG RANGE AM NOT SEEING A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT NEXT
WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THEN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ017-019
         HEAVY SNOW WARNING 6 PM TO NOON SUN AKZ029
         SNOW ADVISORY 6 PM TO 3 AM SUN AKZ018
         WIND ADVISORY 3 PM TO 9 PM AKZ022
         WIND ADVISORY 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ023-027
         WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ019>021-024>026
         WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO 3 AM SUN AKZ028
         WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO 6 AM SUN AKZ029
         WIND ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SUN AKZ017

MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ052
         GALE WARNING PKZ022-036-041>043-051
         SCA PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053

MLR - BMB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 19, 9:39 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK33 hr
Jan 19, 9:39 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK25 hr
Jan 19, 9:39 PM AKSTStorm WarningAJK37 hr
Jan 19, 9:39 PM AKSTStorm WarningAJK13 hr
Jan 20, 11:00 AM AKSTGale WarningAJK2 hr
Jan 20, 2:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK17 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every storm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.