Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 312323
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO
NEAR SEWARD THURSDAY AS IT SENDS A WEATHER FRONT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.  

$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. W
SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...990 MB LOW 200 NM ENE OF SKAGWAY MOVING ENE AWAY
FM FCST AREA.  NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST FIT FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT
OTRW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THU IS QUITE GOOD.  NOTE THE
PULLING AWAY OF THIS LOW ALLOWS THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENET FOR THE END OF THE LAST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES TODAY.

GOES IR LOOP SHOWS NMRS CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE HALF OF THE
GLFALSK.  WHILE THE VORT FEATURES OVER THE GLFALSK ARE GETTING
WEAKER...WILL NOT FCST ANY TSTMS...THE SIMPLE BUOYANCY AIDING THE
CONVECTION IS STRONG. 528 DKM THICKNESS OR COLDER FOR MOST OF
THE GLF.

985 MB LOW 200 NM S OF COLD BAY WILL BE THE SOURCE OF OUR NEXT
WIND EVENT.  PLEASE NOTE THE FCST FOR THIS SYSTEM STRADDLES THE
SHORT RANGE TO LONG RANGE HANDOFF.  00Z FRI THIS LOW SHOULD BE
A 978 MB INVOF SEWARD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S FM PAYA.

.LONG RANGE...STRONG FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE AND WIND ADVISORY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE THE PARENT
LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STALL AND SLOWLY FILL.  IT
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF WHILE ADVECTING COLDER AIR
AND SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND DRIVES THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
INLAND.  WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SHUT
OFF BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO FILTER SOUTH
FROM THE INTERIOR.

UP TO THIS POINT...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT.  HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE JET IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 992MB AND SWING
IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY.  THIS
SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN IN YESTERDAYS RUN...HOWEVER IT
IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 06Z GFS VERSION.  WITH COORDINATION
WITH ANCHORAGE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE 12Z GFS AND BRING THE
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  STRONGEST WINDS (GALE FORCE)
AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ALSO INDICATE A LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE MODEL SHOWS A STRONG FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WHILE ANOTHER DEPICTS A LOW FORMING IN
THE CENTRAL GULF.  THEREFORE WILL KEEP NUMBERS CLOSE TO SEASONAL.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NOTE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 27 THROUGH 28 WILL BE
EXPIRED SOON AFTER THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED.  THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 18 WILL BE KEPT TO ABOUT 6 PM.

MARINE...PLEASE NOTE AMD TO MARINE ZONES 41 AND 36...THEY HAVE
BEEN GALE BUT ARE GETTING AMDS TO SCA.  GALE 12 KEPT.
OTHER SCA...ALL OTHER ZONES EXCEPT 32.