High Wind Watch 2, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 151453
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

AKZ023-027-028-160100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.071115T2100Z-071116T0300Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.HW.A.0002.071116T0300Z-071116T2100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 

A STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CURVE
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BECOMING STRONG THIS EVENING WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING TO 50 MPH THURSDAY EVENING AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH WILL OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ026-029-160100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.071115T2100Z-071116T1200Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AST
FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CURVE
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ020-024-025-160100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.071116T0000Z-071116T1200Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...ANGOON...JUNEAU
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AST FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CURVE
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-160100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.071115T2100Z-071116T1500Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AST
FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AST
FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CURVE
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-021-160100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.071116T0000Z-071116T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...HOONAH
553 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM AST FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN CURVE
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 160030
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

AKZ023-160915-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0002.071116T0300Z-071116T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0005.071116T0900Z-071116T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.071116T2100Z-071117T0900Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS COULD
POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY NIGHT OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$

AKZ028-160915-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0002.071116T0300Z-071116T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0005.071116T0900Z-071116T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.071116T2100Z-071117T0300Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM AST FRIDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE DIXON
ENTRANCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 

A HIGH WIND WARNING WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS COULD
POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY NIGHT OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.THIS

$$

AKZ027-160915-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0002.071116T0300Z-071116T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0005.071116T0900Z-071117T0600Z/
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM AST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM AST
FRIDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE DIXON
ENTRANCE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS COULD
POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY NIGHT OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ026-029-160915-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY.

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-160915-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071117T0900Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ024-160915-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T2100Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANGOON
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12 PM AST FRIDAY.

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

TTHIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ020-021-025-160900-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T0900Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT. 

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

TTHIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-160915-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-071116T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
330 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL TRACK NORTH
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

TTHIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...RELATIVELY WARM AIR CONTINUES ADVANCING FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A LOW DRIFTING NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL LAST NIGHT WAS ALL LIQUID AND SNOW ON
GROUND IS ALMOST MELTED.  MID MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS WEST OF ICY BAY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS AROUND NOON. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER YUKON TERRITORY
CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE ACROSS THE YAKUTAT AREA.  SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS A LITTLE GYRE OF LOW...WELL SOUTH OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH.  A SHIP OBSERVATION EARLIER
THIS MORNING NEAR THE LOW REPORTED CENTER PRESSURE ABOUT 983 MB.

MODEL CONFLICTS CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS COMPLICATED WITH TWO
LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.  PREFER TO USE THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.  THE LITTLE 983 MB GYRE WILL BEGIN TO
FILL AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND
BECOME A WEAK TROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.  THIS INCOMING LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY.  AS PER
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 954 MB WELL WEST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE THURSDAY.  BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO MEET A WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH TO INCLUDE
MOST ZONES...EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY...BY NOON.  AHEAD OF THE
INCREASING WINDS...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE TONIGHT. AHN

.LONG RANGE...GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF A STORM FORCE LOW WEST OF THE DIXON
ENTRANCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
UKMET CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE
LOCATION AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER. NAM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A
SOLUTION QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS AND IS
DISCOUNTED FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TODAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS MODEL RUNS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 12Z ON THE 17TH. AT
THAT TIME...ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW MORE TO THE WEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND FILLS IT MORE SLOWLY THAN GFS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...ECMWF TRACKS IT SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO FILL IT IN
ADVANCE OF A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS GETTING ABSORBED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO ENTER THE
WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SOLUTIONS SEEM PROBABLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EITHER ONE RIGHT NOW BUT HAVE OPTED TO USE
ECMWF AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR DAY 6 THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE
NECESSARY AFTER THAT TIME.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STILL BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY TOWARDS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM YAUKTAT BAY TO THE DIXON
ENTRANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED TO CONTINUE WINDS ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER COAST
AND ZONE 28 THAT WERE INITIATED IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
HAINES...YAKUTAT...AND SKAGWAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED
PRECIP. THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO
7 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX DOES NOT REAPPEAR
IN THE JUNEAU AND HYDER FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WND ADV FOR ALL XCP AKZ018-019 THU.
MARINE...SCA FOR ALL OUTSIDE WTRS AND PKZ036 TONIGHT.
         GALE WRNG FOR PKZ036-041>043 THU.

SJA/FCF