Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2007

Gale Warning 83, NWS Juneau, AK

February 15, 2007

NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Feb 15, 2007, 11:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2007, 11:00 PM AKST (08:00 UTC)
Expired
Feb 16, 2007, 11:00 PM AKST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 161237
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-170100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE N PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE SE GULF
SAT...THEN MOVE E ACROSS SOUTHERN SE ALASKA SAT NIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO NORTHERN SE ALASKA SAT AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE THERE LATE SAT NIGHT. OUTLOOK...A LOW WILL MOVE E TO
THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE MON THEN STALL THERE THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ041-170100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING
TO 10 FT LATE.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT.
RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ042-170100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT LATE.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ043-170100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT.
RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ051-170100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT
OF BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-170100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$
2 follow-up statements
000 
FZAK52 PAJK 170027
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171630-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHPACIFIC WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT AND ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING.   OUTLOOK...A LOW WILL MOVE E TO THE EASTERN GULF BY
LATE  MON THEN STALL THERE THROUGH WED.  

$$

PKZ041-171630-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-171630-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-171630-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-171630-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.   
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-171630-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK52 PAJK 171235
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SAT MORNING WILL LIFT
OVER SE AK THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GULF AND LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
MON. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL.  
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
ICY BAY...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 15, 6:00 AM AKST, 17 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 6:00 AM AKST, 17 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU FEB 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...AN EAST WEST ORIENTED TROUGH IS LOCATED AROUND
57N OR 58N AND IS INCHING NORTHWARD. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW
CENTERS ARE POSITIONED ALONG THIS TROUGH. PREFER THE NAM MODEL
FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION OF THESE MESOSCALE LOWS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW IS PRESENT ACORSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. ONLY YAKUTAT IS ESCAPING THE PRECIPITATION.

PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE SETS UP. BEST BET AT
THIS POINT IS FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WITH SNOW NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND RAIN SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH AXIS INCHES
NORTHWARD...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO PRETTY
MUCH ALL RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND OF COURSE THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE A STRONG OCCLUSION APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. GOING MOSTLY WITH THE GFS FOR TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONT OVER THE NAM/WRF.

.LONG RANGE...FORCAST PACKAGE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR FREEZING
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WITH MOST FORECAST PERIODS IN CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAVING BOTH SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG RANGE IS GOOD AND THE GFS 40 KM
RESOLUTION WILL BE USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE...MODELS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MOST IMPORTANT TREND IS WED AND THU...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DEPICTING A COLD OUTBREAK.  THIS OUTBREAK IS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN A LARGE SCALE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
DATELINE TUE MOVING EAST OVER BRISTOL BAY...HOWEVER THE RIDGE
WOULD ONLY HAVE TO BE EITHER SLOWER OR OF ANY LESS AMPLITUDE
TO DELAY THE COLD OUTBREAK.  SOLN WILL BE TO LIMIT THE
COOLING UNTIL SUCCESSIVE RUNS COME IN THAT COULD VERIFY
THE TREND...IE...WE HAVE LEAST CONFIDENCE FURTHEST OUT IN
THE FUTURE.

MODELS...GFS 12Z RUN HAS A HIGH INTERNAL CONFIDENCE...IN
OTHER WORDS IT HAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND THE ENSEMBLE HAS LITTLE SPREAD AT 500 MB THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.  EUROPEAN HAS SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ZONES 34 35 36 41 42 43 52 310.

TF JT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 11:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK24 hr
Feb 15, 11:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK24 hr
Feb 15, 11:00 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK36 hr
Feb 16, 11:00 AM AKSTGale WarningAJK12 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every gale warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.