Gale Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 170042
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. A  DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB NEAR KODIAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND AROUND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND AROUND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.  
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 171240
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-180100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND GALES IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY. A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN TO 985 MB AS
IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-180100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND AROUND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND AROUND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALES TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 33 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 180033
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-181300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
ONE WEATHER FRONT WILL EXIT INTO CANADA WED NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW
CENTER WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND BE NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-181300-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT RISING TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.  
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALES TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 30 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 181240
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 18 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-190100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A STRONG LOW OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF TODAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAKER LOW AND FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI. OUTLOOK...A STRONGER LOW AND FRONT
WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GULF AND SE ALASKA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-190100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST THU JAN 18 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 190044
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST THU JAN 18 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-191400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST THU JAN 18 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.  
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 191217
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-200100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH FRI.
A WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF ON FRI. OUTLOOK...A
STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT...THEN
STALL OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SUN. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE ALASKA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-200100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND AROUND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A LOW AROUND 991 MB JUST OFF THE COAST OF SITKA AROUND 18Z. A DRY
SLOT IS EXTENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE (SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREA). A DEFORMATION BAND
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST YUKON OVER
THE FAIRWEATHER REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE UKMET IS THE
MODEL OF CHOICE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WEAKENS THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON BY 00Z.

WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
THEREFORE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS
DEVELOP OVER THE LYNN CANAL-SKAGWAY REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT OR LESS WHILE GALES DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL AND DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP TYPE IS GOING
TO BE TRICKY BECAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THIS BAND
MOVES ACROSS AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
AT TIMES AT SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 19 (HAINES) TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ADD A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 18 (SKAGWAY). OTHER AREAS WILL SEE RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW INTO THE EVENING BUT DO NOT EXPECTED A
LOT OF ACCUMULATION. HYDER IN ZONE 29 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
THIS MORNING BUT A SOUTHERLY PUSH DOES LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
SO ENDING THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.

A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH GOOD PVA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TUE NIGHT AND SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW
INLAND. GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF AK MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WED AND
PERSISTS IN THAT LOCATION INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE DATELINE DIGS DEEPER IN
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINATION RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OVER THE GULF OF AK WITH A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE GULF AND THOUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SO
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WIND EPISODES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A HIGH
LIKELYHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST SECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADV 19 20 WND ADV 23 25 26-29 HVY SNOW 29
MARINE...GALES 31 33-36 41-43 SCA 12 13 21 22 51 52

TAR/CFD