Gale Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 170037
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. A  DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB NEAR KODIAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL
IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW
LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW...RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A LOW AROUND 991 MB JUST OFF THE COAST OF SITKA AROUND 18Z. A DRY
SLOT IS EXTENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE (SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREA). A DEFORMATION BAND
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST YUKON OVER
THE FAIRWEATHER REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE UKMET IS THE
MODEL OF CHOICE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WEAKENS THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON BY 00Z.

WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
THEREFORE DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS
DEVELOP OVER THE LYNN CANAL-SKAGWAY REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT OR LESS WHILE GALES DEVELOP IN LYNN CANAL AND DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP TYPE IS GOING
TO BE TRICKY BECAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THIS BAND
MOVES ACROSS AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP RAIN OR RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
AT TIMES AT SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 19 (HAINES) TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ADD A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 18 (SKAGWAY). OTHER AREAS WILL SEE RAIN MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW INTO THE EVENING BUT DO NOT EXPECTED A
LOT OF ACCUMULATION. HYDER IN ZONE 29 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
THIS MORNING BUT A SOUTHERLY PUSH DOES LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
SO ENDING THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.

A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH GOOD PVA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TUE NIGHT AND SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW
INLAND. GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF AK MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WED AND
PERSISTS IN THAT LOCATION INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE DATELINE DIGS DEEPER IN
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINATION RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OVER THE GULF OF AK WITH A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE GULF AND THOUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SO
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WIND EPISODES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A HIGH
LIKELYHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST SECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADV 19 20 WND ADV 23 25 26-29 HVY SNOW 29
MARINE...GALES 31 33-36 41-43 SCA 12 13 21 22 51 52

TAR/CFD