Gale Warning 72, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 041235
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OUTLOOK. ANOTHER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY MIDWEEK. 

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT MAINLY AS SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT MAINLY AS S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT
9 FT MAINLY AS S SWELL NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT MAINLY AS S SWELL
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT IN THE
EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT MAINLY
AS SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT IN THE
EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT MAINLY
AS SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.  
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AST SUN FEB 4 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT IN THE
EVENING THEN SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT FEB 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT
WILL USE NAM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN BLEND TO THE GFS. THE
REASON FOR THE BLEND IS TO INCORPORATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON SUN IN FAR NORTH AREAS AS THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE IT
AND THE GFS DOES.

ATTM THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 992MB LOW 300NM WEST OF
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BE OVER BARANOF BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
BE WEAKENING THROUGH SUN AS IT IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL LOW RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE REFLECTION.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS LIFTING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER NEAR PAHY AND
PANT...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF OVER NIGHT AS THEY GET INTO THE DRY SLOT.  THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL LIQUID FROM PAGN
SOUTHWARD AND ALONG THE COAST BUT FROM THERE TO SOUTHERN LYNN
CANAL IT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES BUT IT ALL DEPENDS HOW LONG IT STAYS SNOW.
IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS IT WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THERE IS A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE PAHN AREA FROM 6PM SAT TO 6PM
SUN...WILL RE-ISSUE IT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH WIND ADVISORY GUSTS NEAR PAHY. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE IS GALE WARNINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE AND INSIDE WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH SMALL
CRAFTS DEVELOPING THROUGH TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL INSIDE WATERS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT SMALL CRAFTS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTHERN AREA THROUGH MID DAY ON SUN. THE WINDS
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND IT WILL BECOME WINDY NEAR PAGY
AND SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE WATER.

.LONG RANGE...A LOW AROUND 1009 MB WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LEFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS RAIN. COLDER AIR
BEING PULLED IN NORTH OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW OR A
RAIN-SNOW MIX UP TO JUNEAU AND ICY STRAIT. FURTHER NORTH A BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ONLY CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA BUILDS IN. THE
HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ZONES
18 AND 19 AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN LYNN CANAL SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THU...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS...STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THE TRACK OF THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BUT COULD
FILTER IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.

THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM AND DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WILL BE
IN HANDLING LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY FRONTS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR NOW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS
REASONABLE FURTHER NORTH BUT COULD BE CLEAR. IF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES INCREASE FOG WOULD NOT BE SUCH A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM
AS IT WOULD BE CONFINED TO WIND SHELTERED AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS BOUNCING AROUND
FROM A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW OR ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA KEEPING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY...AKZ27
         SNOW ADVISORY...AKZ19

MARINE...GALE...PKZ41...42...36
         SCA...PKZ52...51...43...21...22...31-35

ABJ/TAR