Gale Warning 70, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1132 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE THICKER CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THAT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY WEAK
AS THERE IS NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR THE DENSE FOG OVER PAOH AND PAGS TO GO AWAY. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WITH
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THERE WILL NOT BE DIRECT SUN
LIGHT TO BURN IT OFF QUICKLY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF BC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
OVER PAYA BUT IT WILL VERY SHORT LIVED IF IT HAPPENS. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BE JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND SO THINK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIP NORTH OF THERE. MOST PLACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT HYDER MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR IT SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
THAT MUCH BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL
COME OVER SAT NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT AND IN THE MID 30S DURING THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING.

.LONG RANGE...SLOW PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY AND MODELS SHOW
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DETAILS. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN LONG
RANGE YET. BIGGEST CHANGE IS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM RIDGE
OFFSHORE. AS IT WEAKENS AND DEFLATES SOUTHWARD THE MEAN FLOW INTO
SE AK BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. MOISTURE CHANNELS OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE DECENT AMOUNTS UPSTREAM. SENSIBLE AFFECT OF
THESE CHANGES WILL BE LESS FOG...CLOUDIER WEATHER AND SEVERAL
EPISODES OF LIGHT PCPN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA.

LOW CENTER TAKING SHAPE TODAY AT 40N 140W IS FCST TO LIFT NWD AND
AFFECT PANHANDLE STARTING SAT NIGHT. ENSEMBLE SFC PROGS OFFER
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT DEEPEN MUCH BELOW 1005
MB AND PROBABLY WILL BE FILLING AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS
PANHANDLE DURING DAY SUN. HIGHEST POPS FROM FREDERICK SOUND AND
POINTS SOUTH LOOK APPROPRIATE. YUKON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK FORCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME TO HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. IN FACT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY INCREASE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IF MODELS ARE CORRECT BY SLINGING DRY EASTERLY SHORT WAVES
AROUND BOTTOM OF YUKON HIGH CENTER. ONE FLY IN THIS OINTMENT
WOULD BE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS AS COOL WAVES MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER WARMER WATER N GULF AND RECURVE BACK ACROSS SRN PANHANDLE
MID WEEK AND BEYOND. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
BROADBRUSH GENERAL FORECASTS ARE WAY TO GO FOR NOW IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. HENCE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND DRIER WX
FARTHER N.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ZONES 20-21
MARINE...SCA FOR SEAS ALL OUTER COAST ZONES 41-43 AND 50-51.

AJ/TA