Gale Warning 69, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 010058 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-011730-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON THROUGH FRI. A
LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF WED THEN MOVE E TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA BY THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-011730-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. NE SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. NE SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 011226
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INTENSIFY TO A GALE AND
MOVE E TO JUST S OF SITKA BY LATE THU NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN
THERE FRI. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO A GALE AND MOVE NE TO
THE SE GULF FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

$$

PKZ310-020100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH OF 57 DEGREES
NORTH. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NE SWELL.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. NE SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 012356 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144
WEST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST THU MAR 1 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-021800-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE ON FRIDAY.  A SECOND LOW WILL INTENSIFY
TO A GALE AND CROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY.  IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-021800-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST THU MAR 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. NE SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SE SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. E SWELL. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 021215
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST FRI MAR 2 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE FRI. A SECOND LOW
WILL INTENSIFY TO A GALE AND MOVE INTO THE SE GULF ON FRI...THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE FAR SE GULF BY SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST FRI MAR 2 2007 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. NE SWELL. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. NE SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED FEB 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEATHER IS CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TOMORROW.  MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON PLACEMENT
OF THE MOISTURE BAND BUT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STILL LOOKS GOOD
FOR SNOW AND THE WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE CONTINUED.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR CAUSED WEDNESDAY MORNING TO DAWN
CLEAR AND COLD.  RECORD LOW TEMPS WERE ALL OVER THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH JUNEAU AIRPORT BREAKING A 41 YEAR RECORD WITH
-2 DEGREES.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND WINDS HAVE
RELAXED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF
NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES AND WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES BOTH THE
WIND ADVISORY AND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE...UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING.  SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH GOOD OFFSHORE FLOW. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ZONE...HYDER WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FALL TODAY...BUT NO MORE THAN
A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.  ELSEWHERE COLD AIR STRATOCU IS HANGING
AROUND THE CHANNELS NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTH.

WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN ON THURSDAY IS THE BIG WEATHER CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY.  ALL MODELS AGREE ON A MAJOR SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE MAINLAND AND FORMING A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...THIS WILL
PHASE WITH A TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PAC.  THIS WILL BRING A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONSHORE
TOWARDS THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND THOSE
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PASSES WILL PICK BACK UP...SO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE INDEED EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH GALES AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SOME ONSHORE
FLOW AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. SOUTHERN
AREAS...HYDABURG PETERSBURG KETCHIKAN SITKA...WILL SEE SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL MOVE IN
LATER...SO STILL LEAVING A WATCH OVER THESE AREAS FOR NOW. GFS IS
INDICATING SOME LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING SLIGHTLY
NORTH...SO WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SITKA AND ANGOON.

AS FOR MODEL CHOICE...THE GFS HAS COME BACK IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS AND NO LONGER SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER...IN FACT
UKMET IS A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION THIS MORNING AS IT IS
FORECASTING THE 500 MB LOW SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF LOCATIONS.  MAIN AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS...GFS SHOWS MORE LIFT/ONSHORE FLOW
AND EVEN A BIG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS EARLIER AND FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE NAM.  CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER ON
TIMING BUT MAY BE OVER FORECASTING THE AMOUNTS.  STILL THE GFS
HAS RAISED ENOUGH QUESTION TO EXPAND THE WATCH...SO LEANING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.LONG RANGE...MY FORECAST TIME FRAME ON THE LONG TERM STARTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTERS
IS THE START AND STRENGTH OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME SO WE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE TIMING OF THE
STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
RUNNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS... MISTY FJORDS/AND
KETCHIKAN WILL BE RUNNING A BIT LONGER.

WILL AT THIS TIME ALSO EXPAND THE WATCH A TOUCH FURTHER NORTH
ADDING THE ZONES OF 23 AND 24 (BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
ADMIRALTY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  WILL NOT BE PUTTING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JUNEAU ZONE ...BUT IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
THEY TOO WILL BE PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT SNOW (SOUTH OF ENDICOTT
ARM...NOT IN JUNEAU PER SE). WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES 22 AND 25 IN CASE THE PATTERN
SHIFTS A LITTLE.

THERE IS A TRAILING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF/NORTH
PACIFIC THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS FRIDAY AND THE SOUTH EAST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL EXTEND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS 28 AND 29 ZONE. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE IT SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ZONE AND COASTAL PORTION
OF MISTY FJORDS MAY BE A MIX OR RAIN.

EXPECT THAT THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.

WILL NOT BE MAKING MUCH IN WAY OF CHANGES TO THE LATE TIME FRAMES
(MON-WED)...AS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. BUT THE POSITIONS VARY A LITTLE SO WILL NOT
BE TRYING TO GET FANCY. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADV...AKZ17 18 19
         WIND CHILL...AKZ19 FOR ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
         WINTER STORM WATCH AKZ023-024-026>028 THU AFTN TO FRI
            MRNG
         WINTER STORM WATCH AKZ029 THU AFTN TO FRI AFTN
MARINE...GALES...PKZ11 12 51 52
         SCA...PKZ51 53 22 21 13 31 32 33 34 36 41 42
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...11 12 13 31

LF-ABJ-BMB