Gale Warning 101, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 010010
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011730-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON THROUGH FRI. A
LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF WED THEN MOVE E TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA BY THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-011730-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE. SEAS 7 FT.
W SWELL LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW...RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-011730-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-011730-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-011730-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-011730-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST WED FEB 28 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
ICY BAY. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. SEAS 13 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 011230
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INTENSIFY TO A GALE AND
MOVE E TO JUST S OF SITKA BY LATE THU NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN
THERE FRI. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO A GALE AND MOVE NE TO
THE SE GULF FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

$$

PKZ041-020100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-020100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-020100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT
OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-020100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.FRI...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-020100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST THU MAR 1 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 27 2007

.SHORT RANGE...THE PERSISTENT COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS THE 1035MB HIGH OVER THE YUKON
WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TO BE
VERY STRONG BETWEEN THE INTERIOR AND THE PANHANDLE. WITH THAT
SAID WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE WIND ADVSIORIES THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 17 18 AND 19 AND THE WIND CHILL FOR ALONG THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH MAX GALES IN
LYNN CANAL AND SMALL CRAFTS IN OTHER NORTH/SOUTH CHANNELS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES.

THE COLD TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH TEMPS DROPPING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE TEENS FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS. PAYA WILL
SEE THE LOWS DROP INTO NEGATIVE DIGITS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL CLEAR ALL THE WAY OUT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ATTM WILL INCREASE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS THE
TROF CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST THEY WILL BEGIN TO SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR HYDER AS THEY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THERE IS LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER ZONES 26 AND 29 AND THINK THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ZONE 26 THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WHILE ZONE 29 WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT BY
THE MORNING WILL SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
MUCH BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WINDY AND COLD WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS. SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE YUKON BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. SO SOME PLACES WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SHOULD BE A VERY NICE
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG RANGE...
ALL MODELS REVIEWED INSIST AFTER SEVERAL RUNS THAT A MAJOR UPPER
LOW/TROF WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY 00Z FRI. 12Z GFS-190
PREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER PAYA 00Z FRI WITH
-41C @500 MB. ONLY 12Z UKMET IS OUTLIER...OTHERWISE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GFS-190 WHICH IS ACCEPTED THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS 997 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF DIXON ENTRANCE THU AFTERNOON.
N-S SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS WILL BUILD TO VERY STRONG AS THE SFC
LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WE MUST ALSO
CONSIDER HEAVY SNOW FOR SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS FIRST LOW. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE A
WATCH FOR AT LEAST ZONE 29 AND POSSIBLY 26 27 AND 28.

A DEEPER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE FIRST ONE THU
NIGHT AND THE GFS IS AS GOOD AS ANY MODEL MOVING THE SECOND LOW
INTO THE CHARLOTTES BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS BEYOND FRI AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES PERSISTS
OVER THE YUKON AND THE ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE HIGH. BRRRRRR.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADV...AKZ17 18 19
         WIND CHILL ADV...AKZ19 ALONG THE KLONDIKE

MARINE...GALE...PKZ11 12 13
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...PKZ11 12 13
         SCA...ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES

ABJ/JC