Gale Warning 360, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...998 MB LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT  DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.  A
POORLY ORGANIZED OCCLUDED FRONT IS SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING
INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.

THE FRONT WILL WIND ITS WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND BRING
CONTINUED RAIN TO THE AREA.  IN THE NORTHERN HALF...SNOW WILL MIX
WITH THE RAIN WHILE HAINES WILL LIKELY SEE MAINLY SNOWFALL.  QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTED ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  WINDS WILL RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT BUT WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  THEREFORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...LOW CLOUDS...AND VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE. H85 TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OF JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE 12Z GFS.

.LONG RANGE...MODEL RUNS IF FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID
RANGE AND SOME IMPROVING CONSISTENCY WITH THE LATER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THE LATER PERIODS WILL VERY LIKELY RIDE IT OUT AS
IS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

MODELS AGREE ON SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
ROLLING UP ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA.  WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM THE
ALEUTIANS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/TOUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AND ROLLS IT
NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS WELL SUNDAY MORNING.

INTO EARLY PART OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA LOOKS TO CUT OFF TO A HIGH OVER WESTERN RUSSIAN WITH A ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. WHILE A CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE TO NEAR STORM
WINDS MAY BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF (310/041/042/043)
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE STRONG
GALES IN THE FORECAST WHICH STILL LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMCR...ZONE 22-33-35-36-41-42-43-51-52

KJH - BMB