Gale Warning 322, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...STORM FORCE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF HAS BEGUN
TO WILL WHILE TRACKING NORTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUCH THAT
EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF CROSS
SOUND...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM A
PAGS-PAJN LINE SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS CLARENCE
STRAIT WITH GALES EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT LYNN CANAL WHICH HAS
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

FIRST OF TWO FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS THE TIMING OF THE
DECREASE IN WINDS. SYSTEM IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IF ANY LOCATION HAS NOT SEEN PEAK CONDITIONS
YET IT WOULD BE YAKUTAT AND THEY SHOULD SEE MAX WINDS BETWEEN NOW
AND MIDNIGHT. MOST RECENT MODEL RUN NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS
INTENSE AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...WILL BE ADJUSTING THE ENDING TIME
TO THE WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH MOST PLACES ENDING
EARLIER.

THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
ALREADY HAD NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES AND THUNDER WAS REPORTED AT THE SITKA AIRPORT.
CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES WITH
ISOLATED OVER THE OUTER COAST. AM EXPECTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PICK UP OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS WELL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING AT 30 TO
50 KTS OVER THE GROUND COULD BE VERY STRONG. APART FROM NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM SAFETY...MOTORIST AND MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR SIGNS OF VERY STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THEY MAY ENCOUNTER. FCF

.LONG RANGE...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.  RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND INITIALIZATION THROUGH THE
TIME FRAME IS ALSO ACCEPTABLE.  WHILE THESE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AND THE 12Z GFS...WILL NUDGE TO THIS
MODEL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FOR THESE REASONS.

THE REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE EASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY FILL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE
BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW OVER MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 TO END OVERNIGHT.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT
OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.  THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF DISSIPATES.
BEHIND THIS...A FLATTENED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  WILL NUDGE TOWARDS CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ZONES.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY
AS IT SLIDES NORTHWARD.  MODELS HINT AT THE LOWS STRENGTH AROUND
THE UPPER 960S WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE STRENGTH SEEN AMONGST
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  THE ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
STRENGTH-WISE...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO LAG BEHIND THE GFS BY ABOUT 6
TO 12 HOURS.

TIMING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THE OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE INTO THE
EASTERN BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE WELL INTO THE HIGH
GALE RANGE OVER THE GULF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE.  FOR
NOW WILL LIMIT WINDS TO 45 KT.  ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALSO SEEM
LIKELY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREEMENT IS QUITE LOW. THERE IS A
HINT OF A LOW STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW NO CONSISTENCY.
WILL NOT JUMP ON ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR NOW. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING AKZ022-023-027
         WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AKZ018-019

MARINE...STORM FORCE PKZ041>043-051-036
         GALES PKZ011-013-021-022031>035-052
         SMALL CRAFT PKZ012