Gale Warning 320, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 161410
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-170100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 950MB STORM FORCE LOW ABOUT 300 NM W OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL
DRIFT NW TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BY SAT
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ011-170100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-170100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-170100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-170100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-170100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS A S SWELL
NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE...MAINLY AS A S SWELL NEAR THE OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ031-170100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-170100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-170100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AS A SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 29 FT
SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE MAINLY AS A SW SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-170100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-170100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
25 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AS SW SWELL.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 24 FT LATE MAINLY
AS SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-170100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2007 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING AN
APPROACHING 962 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 50N/140W AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KTS. THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM
HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AS IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THIS WILL
NOT BE READILY APPARENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL CLOUD MASS HAS ALREADY COVERED ALL OF THE PANHANDLE
EXCEPT YAKUTAT AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN MORE THICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NOW
DOWN TO -50F. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
THERE IS A SHARPLY DEFINED BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF ALSO EVIDENT IN
IMAGERY AS WELL AS COLD AIR AND A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL LOW. COLD AIR HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND
THE BASE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...EXPECT
TO SEE THE STRONGEST OVER-WATER SURFACE WINDS TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE BAROCLINIC LEAF AND THE COLD AIR. RAIN
HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE
PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE WIND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP IN EARNEST
NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE WITH SOUTHEAST AT 30 KT GUSTING TO 35
KTS. WIND ADVISORY SCHEDULED TO BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THE OUTER COAST UP TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER AT NOON. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONES 23...27 AND 28 IS FOLLOWED UP BY A HIGH WIND
WATCH BEGINNING AT 6PM. BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA...HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 BUT
NOT 24. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 45 KTS FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS AND WIND CHANNELED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW MID MORNING.

.LONG RANGE...ANTICIPATE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE.  STRONG
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS IT FILLS.  THE 12Z GFS/UKMET HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE OF
SIMILAR THINKING TO THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE.  WILL LEAVE MOST FIELDS
AS IS AND DO SOME SLIGHT TWEAKING OF THE WIND TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WILL CARRY AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOOK INTO THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS WITH THE SHORT
RANGE.  FOR NOW...HIGH GALE FORCE WIND IN THE OUTSIDE AND COASTAL
MARINES ALSO LOOK REASONABLE.

AS THE LOW PULLS INLAND NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WINDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY.  BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST REVOLVES AROUND A LOW FORMING IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR KODIAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THAT THE ECMWF AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DIFFER IN STRENGTH BY ABOUT 10 MB AND THAT THE
ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF DEVIATION.  THEREFORE WILL NOT
MAKE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.  LIKELY POPS AND GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM REASONABLE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...ZONES 23-27-28 WIND ADVISORIES NOON-6PM...HIGH WIND
   WATCH 6PM THRU 12 NOON FRI. ALL OTHER ZONES XCP 18-19 WIND
   ADVISORY AFT 3 PM TODAY.

MARINE...STORM WARNING LATE TNGT PKZ041-043. GALE WARNINGS
   TDA-TNGT ALL ZONES XCP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR STEPHENS
   PASG AND YAK BAY.