Gale Warning 264, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
MOVING EAST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND SE AK THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY TO WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SE AK. THE WINDS
ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL REACH STROM FORCE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BARRIER JET WILL SET
UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE STRONG GALES BUT THESE WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS EAST/WEST CHANNELS WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH LYNN CANAL. THAT AREA WILL SEE NORTH
WINDS TO 10 KT BUT THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO A SMALL CRAFT BY SAT AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE WIND ADV OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT
PAYA FIRST AND THEN SLIDE SE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH THE FRONT. ALL OF THE ADV LOOKS TO ON TRACK BUT WILL CHANGE
SOME OF THE ENDING TIMES ON SOME IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING FASTER THAT PREVIOUS THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE RELAXED BY SAT MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OLD FRONT. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT AND A LOW WILL DEEPENING IN THE INTERIOR
SO THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL REACH
WIND ADV OVER THE PAGY AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE SAT BUT THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS. RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE THEM GOING OVER
BANKFULL.

.LONG RANGE...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAX LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL
TRACK NORTH ALONG THE STALLED OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOON
INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD... MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE JET MAX NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.
OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS THE JET MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MUCH LONGER AND ALSO TRACKS THE SURFACE WAVE TO THE NORTH MUCH
FASTER WHILE DEVELOPING IT INTO A 993 MB CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES. DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THIS FAST NOR
DEEPEN THIS MUCH SO WILL BLEND IN SOME NAM TO EXISTING GRIDS TO
SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN THIS WAVE JUST A LITTLE. RESULTING RAINFALL
FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER
A MAJORITY OF ZONE 29.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY
MORNING. PRESSURES RANGING FROM 971 (NAM) TO 978 (ECMWF). GFS IS
THE MAJOR OUTLIER...HAVING A COL BETWEEN TWO SURFACE LOWS WHERE
THE OTHERS ARE STAMPING THE SYSTEM CENTER. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS FAR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CONCERNED THOUGH
BELIEVE IT IS TOO DEEP ON CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE MAIN LOW WILL
TRACK CYCLONICALLY INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES.
THE PARENT LOW WILL THEN FILL EAST OF KODIAK AS THE SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS AND TRACKING FIRST NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE WEDNESDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK UKMET AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DEVELOPING A LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WITH ECMWF DEEPENING IT TO 954MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS
BEFORE...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS GOOD BUT BELIEVE THE MODEL IS
TOO DEEP AND SO WILL BLEND THIS DEEPENING TREND TO EXISTING
GRIDS.

SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN MOST PLACES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED ON MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

POSSIBLE GALES IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADV...AKZ17 20>29 THROUGH TONIGHT
         WIND ADV...AKZ18

MARINE...STORM...PKZ52 51 43
         GALE...PKZ22 21 36 41 42
         SCA...PKZ11 31>35

ABJ/FCF