Gale Warning 263, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 130430 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
830 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
THE STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DEEPEN TO 973 MB AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL SPREAD STRONG GALE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE GULF SAT. 

$$

PKZ011-131400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-131400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...LIGHT N WINDS BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-131400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
830 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-131400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-131400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ031-131400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-131400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-131400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-131400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-131400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS... EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-131400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 131154
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-140100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 973 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THERE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN SE ALASKA LATE TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ011-140100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-140100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-140100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-140100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-140100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ031-140100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-140100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-140100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
11 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-140100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-140100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-140100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF GUARD ISLAND...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
N OF GUARD ISLAND...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
MOVING EAST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND SE AK THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY TO WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER SE AK. THE WINDS
ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL REACH STROM FORCE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BARRIER JET WILL SET
UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE STRONG GALES BUT THESE WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS EAST/WEST CHANNELS WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH LYNN CANAL. THAT AREA WILL SEE NORTH
WINDS TO 10 KT BUT THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO A SMALL CRAFT BY SAT AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE WIND ADV OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT
PAYA FIRST AND THEN SLIDE SE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH THE FRONT. ALL OF THE ADV LOOKS TO ON TRACK BUT WILL CHANGE
SOME OF THE ENDING TIMES ON SOME IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING FASTER THAT PREVIOUS THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE RELAXED BY SAT MORNING BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OLD FRONT. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT AND A LOW WILL DEEPENING IN THE INTERIOR
SO THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL REACH
WIND ADV OVER THE PAGY AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE SAT BUT THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS. RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE THEM GOING OVER
BANKFULL.

.LONG RANGE...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAX LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL
TRACK NORTH ALONG THE STALLED OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOON
INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD... MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE JET MAX NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.
OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS THE JET MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MUCH LONGER AND ALSO TRACKS THE SURFACE WAVE TO THE NORTH MUCH
FASTER WHILE DEVELOPING IT INTO A 993 MB CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES. DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THIS FAST NOR
DEEPEN THIS MUCH SO WILL BLEND IN SOME NAM TO EXISTING GRIDS TO
SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN THIS WAVE JUST A LITTLE. RESULTING RAINFALL
FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER
A MAJORITY OF ZONE 29.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY
MORNING. PRESSURES RANGING FROM 971 (NAM) TO 978 (ECMWF). GFS IS
THE MAJOR OUTLIER...HAVING A COL BETWEEN TWO SURFACE LOWS WHERE
THE OTHERS ARE STAMPING THE SYSTEM CENTER. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS FAR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CONCERNED THOUGH
BELIEVE IT IS TOO DEEP ON CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE MAIN LOW WILL
TRACK CYCLONICALLY INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES.
THE PARENT LOW WILL THEN FILL EAST OF KODIAK AS THE SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS AND TRACKING FIRST NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE WEDNESDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK UKMET AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DEVELOPING A LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WITH ECMWF DEEPENING IT TO 954MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS
BEFORE...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS GOOD BUT BELIEVE THE MODEL IS
TOO DEEP AND SO WILL BLEND THIS DEEPENING TREND TO EXISTING
GRIDS.

SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN MOST PLACES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED ON MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

POSSIBLE GALES IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADV...AKZ17 20>29 THROUGH TONIGHT
         WIND ADV...AKZ18

MARINE...STORM...PKZ52 51 43
         GALE...PKZ22 21 36 41 42
         SCA...PKZ11 31>35

ABJ/FCF