Gale Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN DEC 31 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...
THE SECONDARY LOW AS A LEFTOVER FROM LAST WEEKS STORM IS ALIVE
AND WELL IN THE EASTERN GULF. IT WAS PROBABLY 995 MB JUST OFF
BUOY 46084 18Z SUN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOUD BANDS
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SW WHICH HIDES THE CIRCULATION
OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. MSAS PLACES THE LOW 995 MB BUT ALL
RADAR ECHOES ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTH. GOOD SHOT OF QUICKSCAT
WINDS AT 1536Z. THE 250 MB JET STREAM ANALYSIS IS AWESOME THIS
MORNING WITH AN STRONG JET BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AFRICA TO AN
EXIT NEAR 53N 140W. THE MAJOR UPPER TROF IS FROM THE POLE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER A 958 STORM SOUTH OF ADAK WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
TAKING OVER AS MAIN SURFACE LOW NEAR 49N 159W 18Z AROUND 964 MB.
NOTE THAT IT IS THE TRIPLE POINT 49N 149W 18Z AHEAD OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM THAT BECOMES THE GULF STORM CENTER.

MID SHIFT REALIZED THAT TOO MUCH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEY ISSUED A WARNING FOR WHITE PASS WHICH LOOKS
GOOD AND MANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS THE NEW TRIPLE POINT TAKES
OVER TO BECOME A MAJOR STORM IN THE GULF. ALL MODELS REVIEWED BY
18Z TARGET THE CENTER LANDFALL AROUND CAPE SUCKLING MONDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL CAPTURE CORRECTLY THE
WIND FIELD AROUND THIS LOW. REASONABLE TO EMPHASIZE RAIN OVER
SNOW FOR WHERE PEOPLE LIVE OVER THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG RANGE...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...AN
ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE STORM COMPLEX NOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS EVOLVING INTO A DOUBLE LOW WITH THE MAIN
LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N/159W AND THE SECONDARY LOW ABOUT 10 DEGREES
TO THE EAST. THE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND BE JUST OFFSHORE FROM SITKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN LOW WILL BE HANGING WELL WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

THE PRIMARY LOW WILL SWING EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MAIN BODY OF ALASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH THE OUTSIDE WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN THE RULE OVER THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE AS THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INLAND NORTH OF OUR
AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A LOT OF SNOW...BUT LOWER AREAS
WILL SEE MAINLY ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS LIKELY AS WELL.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW 18 WHITE PASS. WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES.
MARINE...GALES 22 36 41 42 43 51 52. SCA ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES.
JC