Gale Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 020034
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 962 MB LOW 70 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON EVENING WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NW OVERNIGHT. A NEW 970 MB LOW MOVES NE INTO THE
GULF TUE AND WILL BE W OF CAPE SUCKLING TUE NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ310-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND AROUND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT N PART TO 25 FT S
PART. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND AROUND 20 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN. 
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 TO 32 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 TO 31 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN DEC 31 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...
THE SECONDARY LOW AS A LEFTOVER FROM LAST WEEKS STORM IS ALIVE
AND WELL IN THE EASTERN GULF. IT WAS PROBABLY 995 MB JUST OFF
BUOY 46084 18Z SUN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOUD BANDS
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SW WHICH HIDES THE CIRCULATION
OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. MSAS PLACES THE LOW 995 MB BUT ALL
RADAR ECHOES ARE MOVING FROM THE SOUTH. GOOD SHOT OF QUICKSCAT
WINDS AT 1536Z. THE 250 MB JET STREAM ANALYSIS IS AWESOME THIS
MORNING WITH AN STRONG JET BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AFRICA TO AN
EXIT NEAR 53N 140W. THE MAJOR UPPER TROF IS FROM THE POLE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER A 958 STORM SOUTH OF ADAK WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
TAKING OVER AS MAIN SURFACE LOW NEAR 49N 159W 18Z AROUND 964 MB.
NOTE THAT IT IS THE TRIPLE POINT 49N 149W 18Z AHEAD OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM THAT BECOMES THE GULF STORM CENTER.

MID SHIFT REALIZED THAT TOO MUCH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEY ISSUED A WARNING FOR WHITE PASS WHICH LOOKS
GOOD AND MANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS THE NEW TRIPLE POINT TAKES
OVER TO BECOME A MAJOR STORM IN THE GULF. ALL MODELS REVIEWED BY
18Z TARGET THE CENTER LANDFALL AROUND CAPE SUCKLING MONDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL CAPTURE CORRECTLY THE
WIND FIELD AROUND THIS LOW. REASONABLE TO EMPHASIZE RAIN OVER
SNOW FOR WHERE PEOPLE LIVE OVER THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG RANGE...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...AN
ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE STORM COMPLEX NOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS EVOLVING INTO A DOUBLE LOW WITH THE MAIN
LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N/159W AND THE SECONDARY LOW ABOUT 10 DEGREES
TO THE EAST. THE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND BE JUST OFFSHORE FROM SITKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN LOW WILL BE HANGING WELL WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

THE PRIMARY LOW WILL SWING EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MAIN BODY OF ALASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH THE OUTSIDE WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN THE RULE OVER THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE AS THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INLAND NORTH OF OUR
AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A LOT OF SNOW...BUT LOWER AREAS
WILL SEE MAINLY ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS LIKELY AS WELL.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW 18 WHITE PASS. WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES.
MARINE...GALES 22 36 41 42 43 51 52. SCA ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES.
JC