Small Craft Advisory 88, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: A 519 DM LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. BY THU EVENING THE LOW WILL BE 528 DM OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA. A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA TO NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE EASTWARD AROUND THE LOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

SURFACE: A 975 MB LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN
TO 991 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OF RUSSIA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DIRECTLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

NORTH SLOPE: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL MEAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
MARINE AREAS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

WEST COAST: STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS BERING SEA LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MOVES NORTH. WATER ON THE NOME-COUNCIL ROAD BETWEEN MILE MARKER 23
AND 24 HAS MADE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. THE ROAD WILL LIKELY
BECOME IMPASSABLE BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
WAVES CUT A DITCH THROUGH THE ROAD. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORT SAFETY TO SOLOMON UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE
KIVALINA AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE EROSION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INTERIOR: SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A BERING SEA
LOW...CHINOOK WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH TO OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA AND WEAKENS. THE KIVALINA AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE EROSION DUE TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS FROM WALES
TO CAPE LISBURNE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA ON SAT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
COASTAL HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE BEYOND THE DAY 4
TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE. THIS DROP COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

SEP 07

DA