Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 122115
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF FOR
A PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

AKZ226-130600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-070913T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
115 PM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA HAVE RESULTED IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH PASSES WEST OF
THE TOK CUTOFF. WINDS MAY LOCALLY GUST AS STRONG AS 70 MPH NEAR
THE DELTA RIVER NORTH OF BLACK RAPIDS...ALTHOUGH WINDS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE MORE COMMON. RH VALUES IN THE WINDY AREAS WILL BE 25 TO
30 PERCENT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL RAISE HUMIDITIES AND END THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 130529
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
929 PM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

AKZ226-130630-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-070913T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
929 PM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND
WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
519 AM ADT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE AUTUMN WX PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH
LONG WAVE TROF JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE AND FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 140W. THIS BASIC PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGING
ANYTIME SOON...WITH FREQUENTLY STORMY WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST
AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...978 MB LOW NW OF PASN WILL MOVE TO VCNTY OF THE
BERING STRAIT THU MORNING AND NORTH THEREAFTER. ASSOCIATED
OCFNT...ALREADY LOOKING RAGGED...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...TO
BE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ALASKA-YUKON BORDER THU
MORNING. 1025 MB HI IN THE SE YUKON DRFTG SE. 1024 MB HI 700 NM
NORTH OF KAVTOVIK DRFTG EAST AND BUILDING TO 1030 MB BY THU AM.

MODELS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF PATTERN.
VERTICALLY STACKED BERING LOW MOVG NORTHWARD...INTO THE SRN
CHUKCHI SEA LATE THU OR EARLY FRI. STG RIDGE ALOFT ALONG ALASKA-
YUKON BORDER WEAKENING TEMPORARILY AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH. BY THE WEEKEND LOW...SFC AND ALOFT..DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. NAM HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL AT 00Z NOT
FORECASTING THIS...BUT 06Z RUN SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF KAKTOVIK WILL
INCREASE THE EASTERLY GRADIENT...THO THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE TATTERED REMAINS OF THE BERING SEA OCFNT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. NO RETURN OF WINTER IN SIGHT.

FOR THE WEST COAST...STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES AS BERING LOW MOVES
NORTH. REGRETTABLY...QUICKSCAT PASS FOR THE BERING SEA AT 0648Z
WAS NOT PROPERLY DECODED...SO NO HI RES LOOK AT MARINE WINDS.
PRECIP HEAVIEST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL DAYS 2 THRU 4...POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT
KIVALINA THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
CHUKOTKA. ALSO...POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION ISSUES THU FOR THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PEN COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT AND WINDS TURN SW.

FOR THE INTERIOR...STRONG CHINOOK FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL. PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP HI WIND WARNINGS FOR ALASKA RANGE PASSES BUT
SITUATION IS MARGINAL AT BEST. ONE MORE REALLY WARM DAY CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES THEN SIGNIFICANT COOLING...THO REMAINING WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE INDEFINITE FUTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG CHINOOK ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR ISABEL PASS AREA
SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. COOLING AMS POST-FRONTALLY WILL ALLOW RHS
TO RISE 30 PERCENT TONIGHT. WARM AMS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL ALLOW MIN RHS TODAY TO DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER
YUKON AND UPPER TANANA VALLEYS. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TONIGHT AND
THU WILL RESULT IN MIN RHS ABOVE 40 PERCENT MOST AREAS THU EXCEPT
POSSIBLY THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

RT SEP 07