Small Craft Advisory 145, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM ADT SUN OCT 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...QUASI-ZONAL JET CROSSES THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG
ABOUT 50N...WITH NORTHERN ALASKA LEFT IN A LESS ACTIVE REGIME
TODAY. BUT THIS QUIET PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WHICH ARE ENTERING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE HIGH SPEED ZONAL FLOW AND THE NUMERICAL
MODELS TRADITIONAL DIFFICULTIES HANDLING TROPICAL FEATURES
TRANSITIONING INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDES...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING QUITE A BIT OF LATE. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECASTS
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE WHICH ALSO DRAWS ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN COOK
INLET BY EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING
TO DENALI... FAIRBANKS...EAGLE. LOW THEN WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING
EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

INTERIOR...MAIN IMPACT OF FEATURE DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE WIND.
THE USUAL PLACES...SUCH AS SUMMITS ON THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY...WILL
HAVE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL HAVE STRONGEST
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTER THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSES. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR...SOUTHERN INTERIOR HAS LESS OF A CHANCE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE ALASKA RANGE AND LACK OF ANY SERIOUS DOME OF ARCTIC
AIR TO OVER-RUN THERE.

NORTH SLOPE...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE NORTH SLOPE...THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SLOPE WILL INCREASE...AND THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP
SOME. PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE ZERO AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO...WHICH
MEANS WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A SERIOUS THREAT EITHER.

WEST COAST...DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MARINE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ES OCT 07