Gale Warning 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 301104
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-310200-
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 960 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO MAINLAND ALASKA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ200-310200-
NORTON SOUND-
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-310200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-310200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-310200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
304 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JL/ES OCT 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
507 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...THE ZONAL JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO POKE
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL STORM NOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUE
BUT RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA INTO CANADA WILL PERSIST.

SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH NEAR BANKS ISLAND DRIFTING EAST. 975 MB LOW
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 00Z TUE THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT WEST. 983 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK...EX-TROPICAL
STORM FAXAI...MOVING TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHITTIER 00Z WED AT
962 MB WED THEN MOVING TO SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 985 MB
00Z THU WITH SECONDARY CENTER NEAR TANANA AT 988 MB. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH TO ALASKA RANGE CREST 18Z TUE THEN TO
FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE AND EAST INTO CANADA 06Z WED AND WEAKENING AS
MAIN ENERGY MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO CANADA.

MODELS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE
INCOMING STORM TO SOUTHERN ALASKA...BUT THE GFS AND EVEN THE
WRF/NAM WANTS TO MOVE THE LOW CENTER ALMOST ENTIRELY NORTH OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH VERY LITTLE WEAKENING. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY
MUCH WEAKER ON THE RESULTING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND KEEPS A
MAIN CENTER NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THIS IS HISTORICALLY WHAT
HAPPENS SO THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED IN THIS REGARD. NONETHELESS
BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL THEN DIMINISH
TUE NIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STRATUS
AND FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

WESTERN ALASKA...INCREASING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEE SIDE CLEARING OVER NORTON SOUND AND KOTZEBUE SOUND...
THOUGH THE RESULTING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN YUKON DELTA MAY PROVIDE LOW CLOUDS THERE.
THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST MAINLY OVER ZONE 213. WINDS DIMINISHING
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SURFACE LOW FILLS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER SUMMITS AND LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE VALLEYS. A CHANCE OF
SNOW WITH OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
SHUNTED INTO CANADA AS MAIN JET MAX MOVES FROM NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...AVOIDING THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ224.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL OCT 07