High Wind Watch 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
547 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH A RECORD SETTING 577 DM HIGH
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN RETROGRADE SUN AND MON AS A LOW ALOFT NOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA MOVES WEST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SUN AND MON. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS ALASKA SUN AND MON FOLLOWING THE
LOW ALOFT. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE STATE LATE
SUN AND MONDAY AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE...
A LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO RUSSIA
SUN PM. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOST
OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST GALES WILL DECREASE TO
15-25 KT TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHILE EAST WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST EAST
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM BARROW WEST.

AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO BRISTOL BAY
WILL DRIFT WEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY 3AM SUN AND THEN
DISSIPATE. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH EARLY SUN
AS WELL.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SUN INCREASING TO 25-40 MPH SUN
NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS SUCH AS THE DALTON AND ELLIOT
HIGHWAYS FROM LIVENGOOD NORTH AND WEST AND IN THE TANANA VALLEY
JET AREA. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE SUNDAY OVER THESE
AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS LATE SUN THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES.

.DISCUSSION....
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THEY DIFFER ON THE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW ALOFT MOVING FROM NORTHERN
CANADA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NAM DEEPENS THE LOW AS IT
MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE DEPTH.
FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AS THERE IS LITTLE DYNAMIC REASON TO
DEEPEN THE LOW ALOFT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS REASON BUT
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HEAVY SURF ZONES 211 AND 213 WILL DIMINISH BY NOON AS THE WINDS
DECREASE. INCREASING EAST WINDS MON AND TUE SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS AS IT WILL PUSH WATER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 07