Gale Warning 88, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER BERING SEA WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER
NORTH PACIFIC...AALSKA...AND ARCTIC OCEAN. LOW IN BERING BERING
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN RUSSIA NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE
RIDGE WILL PINCH OFF A 575 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC OCEAN
WHICH WILL DRIFT WEST SAT THEN BECOME ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 72
NORTH MON...WHILE A LOW FORMING OVER SE ALASKA RETROGRADES WEST TO
BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE...970 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BERING SEA MOVING NORTHWEST
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAKENING THROUGH 12Z SUN. FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM CHUKOTKA TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A 977 MB LOW NEAR
PRIBILOFS WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND MERGE WITH BERING LOW OVER
RUSSIA 00Z SUN. 1052 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST INTERIOR WEAKENING TO
1045 MB 00Z SUN BUT SPREADING WAST ACROSS BROOKS RANGE THROUGH 12Z
SUN. ARCTIC FRONT FROM WAINWRIGHT TO GALENA TO MCGRATH DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVING WEST TO POINT LAY TO 50 EAST
OF KOTZEBUE TO SAINT MARYS 00Z MON.

MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR IN SHORT TERM IN TRACKING LOW NEAR PRIBILOFS
AND SOUTHWEST BEING LOW MOVING INTO RUSSIA. IN MEDIUM TERM ECMWF A
LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN OVER INTERIOR FROM CANADA
SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...HAVE CONTINUED THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES THROUGH
EVENING AS WINDS ARE STILL MODERATELY STRONG. MAYBE IFFY AS NOT
MUCH NEW SNOW...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALONG COAST
DIMINISHING SOME BY MORNING..BUT NOT DIMINISHING A LOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SECONDARY SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE.

WESTERN ALASKA..WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 211
THROUGH 214 THIS EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR ZONE 213 WHERE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING.
HAVE EXTENDED HIGH SURF THROUGH SAT AM DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGH
TIDES AGAIN SATURDAY AND TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW WATER LEVEL
GOING DOWN UNTIL LATE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISHING ALL AREAS SAT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...TURNING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH COOLING. RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY WEST OF SHISHMAREF TO ANVIK LINE AND
DIMINISHING FROM EAST THIS EVENING...ONLY SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ZONE 213 FOR SATURDAY.

INTERIOR...SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT OTHERWISE
DRY. TEMPS DROPPING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT SURFACE WITH HIGH PERSISTING SO EXPECT WINDS OVER
SUMMITS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS...AND ONLY VERY PROTECTED
VALLEY SPOTS MAY DROP BELOW -30F SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ225.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

JL NOV 07