Gale Warning 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 081048
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-090315-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 MB LOW 180 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND WEAKEN. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUN
AND DEEPEN TO 987 MB OVER ADAK LATE SUN NIGHT AND BY MON MORNING
DEEPEN TO 973 MB 300 NM NORTH OF ADAK.

$$

PKZ200-090315-
NORTON SOUND-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-090315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-090315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-090315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JHD/RF SEP 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 6Z SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
THE NAM BRINGS THE CURRENT BERING SEA LOW AND FORMS A SPIN OFF LOW
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THEN TAKES THAT LOW FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THEN
WESTWARD. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
PUSHES IT NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF POINT LAY BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A MORE LOGICAL PATH AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS NEARLY IDENTICAL OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

NOW...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD FROM ABOUT KOTZEBUE TO
TANANA AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TO
ABOUT NEAR BARROW TO ABOUT FORT YUKON BY 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR WITH
APPROACHING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATUS STILL PLAGUING THE
ARCTIC COAST EVEN THOUGH SOUTH WINDS ARE DOMINATING. WIND FLOW IS
LIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BUT WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD AND BERING
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.

THIS FIRST IN A SERIES OF BERING SEA LOWS WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING
NORTHERN ALASKA WEATHER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARRIVING TO ZONES 212...214...215 AND 225 BY
LATE THIS EVENING. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE
NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH WILL SHADOW OUT PRECIPITATION FROM BETTLES TO
TANANA AND EASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO LOCK OUT THE CHINOOK EFFECT. THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS IN WIND MAGNITUDES IN UPPER LEVELS. THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL GET IN ON THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TILTS AND ALLOWS A MORE
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL GET IN ON THE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RAIN SHADOW. STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.

WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EVEN GALE IN WESTERN
ZONE 210 BUT FEEL AT THIS POINT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
SURGE VALUES TO AFFECT THE DELICATE BALANCE FOR THE THRESHOLD FOR
ANY COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 223 AND 226
FOR STRONG WIND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE THRESHOLD BUT THE RH VALUES WILL BE CLOSE. WITH
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE CONTENT TO BE
SQUEEZED FROM THE AIR AS IT DOWNSLOPES BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE STILL LEFT OVER FROM BEING MOISTURE LADEN TO BEGIN
WITH...THE RH VALUES WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CF SEP 07