Gale Warning 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 072152
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-081400-
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 981 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SAT EVENING AND WEAKEN. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SUNDAY AND DEEPEN TO 974 MB OVER ADAK LATE SUN NIGHT AND BY MON
MORNING DEEPEN TO 969 MB 300 NM NORTH OF ADAK.

$$

PKZ200-081400-
NORTON SOUND-
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.SAT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-081400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND EAST...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND EASTWARD. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...E WINDS 35 KT BECOMING S.
WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-081400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-081400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
152 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CF/EWP SEP 07

000
FZAK52 PAFG 081048
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-090315-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 MB LOW 180 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND WEAKEN. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUN
AND DEEPEN TO 987 MB OVER ADAK LATE SUN NIGHT AND BY MON MORNING
DEEPEN TO 973 MB 300 NM NORTH OF ADAK.

$$

PKZ200-090315-
NORTON SOUND-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-090315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-090315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-090315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
248 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JHD/RF SEP 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NOW BEGINNING TO CHANGE INTO A MORE
TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE BERING
SEA BY THE WEEKEND WITH A RESULTANT RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL USHER THE FIRST BIG STORM OF
THE SEASON INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF LOWS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE MODERATE TO STRONG MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK EXCEPTING THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WHERE THE FLOW WILL CAUSE PERIODIC CHINOOK WINDS.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH SAT.

A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE EAST OF BARTER ISLAND FRI.
THIS IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE THAT WILL
DECREASE FRI. A TROUGH NOW STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THAT LOW TO
DENALI WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR THU NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS TROUGH DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST
OF IT. THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN THE SUNNY
AREA NORTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF NEAR SHEMYA WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A 979 MB LOW FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AS A 980 MB LOW SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN ROTATE
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT FROM THE LOW INTO
BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE OVER NORTON SOUND AS A DISSIPATING FRONT FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND A CHANCE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH THIS FRONT, AND EAST WINDS TO 25KT.

A TRAILING BUT STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY SAT
PM...TO NORTON SOUND BY 4AM SAT...AND TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25-35KT. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD TO THE ARCTIC
COAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER SUN. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON AND AND COULD CAUSE HEAVY SURF SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.

STRONG CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FRI NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT KEEPING RAIN AT BAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE CHINOOK WILL WEAKEN SUN AND RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THEN. THIS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE OK OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, BUT NAM IS WAY TO WEAK
ON LOW NEAR SHEMYA AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. GFS INITIALIZES MUCH
CLOSER BUT STILL A BIT TOO WEAK ON THIS FEATURE. SINCE THIS WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS WE ARE GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAINS THIS LOW
DEEPER THAN THE NAM AND MOVES IT MUCH FASTER.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
POTENTIAL HEAVY SURF ZONES 211, 213 AND 214 SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.
FETCH APPEAR TOO SHORT FOR FLOODING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RHS OVER 80% TONIGHT...AND EXPECTED TO FALL TO 40-50% FRI EXCEPT
30-40% FRI IN ZONES 220-225.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ZONES 223 225 AND 226 FRI NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
RED FLAGS FOR THOSE ZONES SAT AS THE RH DROPS. WINDS WILL DROP AND
HUMIDITIES RISE SUN IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 07