Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AST SUN JAN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...BY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD TO WRANGEL
ISLAND...WITH STANDARDIZED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +1.5 TO
OVER +2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. IN THE
RIDGE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB MAY EXTEND AS FAR
NORTH AS THE BROOKS RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
HILLY TERRAIN ARE LIKELY TO MAX OUT IN THE 40S.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
WAVE TRAIN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC AND THE BERING SEA.

A 984 MB LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS AT 18Z WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CURVES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST.
BY 00Z THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO TROUGH NEAR 55N/180W. MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS AT GAMBELL HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING
THE LAST 12 HOURS...BUT VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED...FLUCTUATING
MAINLY BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 MILE. WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR AKZ213 TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY.

THE NEXT LOW IN THE SERIES...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
AROUND 955 MB...IS LOCATED NEAR 44N/162 W AT 18Z...AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY 06Z TUESDAY
WEAKENING TO 975-980 MB. NAM/GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AGREE REASONABLY WELL.
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT...WILL DIMINISH
SOME THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST LOW WEAKENS...BUT INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RE-TIGHTENS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT WARMER...IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD THREAT
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AND WE WILL POST A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213 BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER DEEP LOW WILL FOLLOW...LIKELY REACHING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY BOTTOMING
OUT BETWEEN 940-950 MB. MODEL FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM
DO NOT AGREE AS WELL AS ON THE FIRST TWO LOWS...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING...WITH GALES LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA...INCLUDING NORTON AND KOTZEBUE
SOUNDS. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PARTS OF PKZ210. THE LULL BETWEEN PERIODS OF GALES WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT...AND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE YET
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER AKZ213.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...MAXING OUT NEAR 1050 MB OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY...SPREADING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PRESENT A THREAT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AND OVER THE ENTIRE
ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF JAN 07