Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 281948
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1048 AM AST SUN JAN 28 2007

AKZ225-226-282100-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070129T0200Z/
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1048 AM AST SUN JAN 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
446 AM AST SUN JAN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER AK
DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. LATEST IN
SERIES OF LOWS TO MOVE INTO ERN BERING FROM N PACIFIC
IN THIS FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO ABOUT 979 MB JUST NE OF PASN
AT 12Z. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT REACHES TO TRIPLE POINT
OVER SEWARD PEN. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED SSEWRD
OVER WRN INTERIOR S TO PADQ. WARM FRONT HAS GONE ALOFT
OVER INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT AND MID-TERM...
THOUGH PREFER GFS AS IT KEEPS LATEST BERING LOW DEEPER
A LITTLE LONGER THROUGH MON THAN NAM...AND TENDS TO DO
BETTER WITH THESE SYSTEMS MOVING UP FROM THE DATA VOID.
PRIBILOF LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB OPEN TROUGH NEAR
ST MATTHEW ISLE 12Z MON WHILE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS LIFT
N OVER WRN HALF N SLOPE/BROOKS RANGE BY THEN. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE 968 MB LOW FORECAST TO CROSS ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT...
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL LIFT N OVER WRN
INTERIOR TO SEWARD PEN. BY 12Z TUE...AND OVER N SLOPE BY
06Z WED. GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. IT FORECASTS IT TO LIFT N OVER
INTERIOR MON NIGHT WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BRING PRECIP.
AS FAR E AS PAFA. THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY WELL N FROM JUST OFFSHORE SE AK STRAIGHT THROUGH
INTERIOR TO NWRN ARCTIC COAST BY 12Z WED...AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AT LEAST INTO FRI.

N SLOPE: FRONTAL REMANTS/WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE FROM LATEST
BERING LOW WILL BRING -SN N AND EAST ALONG WRN ARCTIC COAST
TO PABR TODAY/TONIGHT...ENDING MON MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SIBERIAN HIGH AND REMNANT TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLSN OVER ZONE 201...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR
BLIZ CONDITIONS. PRECIP. FROM NEXT SYSTEM TUE NIGHT WILL
BE MINIMAL WRN ARCTIC...BUT STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORECAST
TO BUILD IN OVER BEAUFORT SEA...WHICH COULD CREATE GROUND
BLIZ CONDITIONS IN GALE FORCE WINDS FROM ABOUT PAWI TO
PALU...THIS WILL NEED MONITORING.

W COAST: BLIZ CONDITIONS ST LAWRENCE WILL EASE TODAY AS LOW
WEAKENS. SNOW WITH NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE N OVER ST LAWRENCE
MON EVENING...AS WELL AS NORTON SOUND AND COASTAL MARGINS...
MON NIGHT FOR SEWARD PEN...AND OVER CHUKCHI SEA/COASTAL
MARGINS TUE. COULD SEE BLIZ CONDITIONS ST LAWRENCE AGAIN WITH
THIS ONE.

INTERIOR: FT. GREELEY MESONET SITES GUSTING 40-49KT SO WILL
GO WITH WIND ADVISORIES ZONES 225/226 TODAY. WINDS WILL DROP
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. ONLY
SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE OVER S SLOPES BROOKS RANGE. LOW-LEVEL
WARMING TODAY AND MON WILL CAUSE HILL TEMPS. TO POP ABOVE 32F
FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 12/09. PRECIP. FROM SHORT-WAVE MON NIGHT
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR E AS PAFA. 850 MB TEMPS. 0 TO -2C AT THIS
TIME...COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX IF THIS OCCURS. EVEN WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER INTERIOR TUE-FRI...+2 TO +5C AT 850MB
UNDER UPPER RIDGING. WITH CLEARING SKIES THEN...VERY STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAR JAN 07