Brisk Wind Advisory 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
533 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH ENERGY PATTERN CONTINUES. BROAD AREA OF LOW
500MB HEIGHTS COVERS BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ABOUT. MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND. IN BETWEEN...THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA IS DRIVEN BY A TRANSITORY SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS FRONT DISSOLVES MONDAY
NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE SHOOTING GALLERY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST COAST.

NORTH SLOPE...COMPARATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOLIDIFYING ICE COVERAGE IS HELPING TO LIMIT THE STRATUS
AND FOG. SURFACE HIGH OFF BANKS ISLAND ISNT GOING ANYWHERE
SOON...SO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. BUT MILD TEMPERATURES MEAN
THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN TAME.

WEST COAST...SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING OCCLUSION PASSING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THEN A SUCCESSION OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW...OR MIXED WITH
RAIN DUE TO WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE SHORT WAVES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BLIZZARD. HOWEVER...SINCE THESE SHORT WAVES ARE COMING OUT
OF THE DATA-POOR NORTH PACIFIC...AND SINCE THEY ARE MOVING VERY
FAST...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAKE SOLID ASSESSMENTS OF THEM MORE
THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE. MOST LIKELY SUSPECT IS COMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...THAT SHORT WAVE
LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH WIND BUT MAY BE TOO WARM TO GENERATE
SUFFICIENT BLOWING SNOW. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SEA ICE.

INTERIOR...BIG STORY IS WIND. THE SURFACE LOW DOWN NEAR KODIAK IS
FILLING...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR ARE DIMINISHING. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTHWAY
AND DELTA JUNCTION IS DOWN TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 24 HOURS AT
6.5MB...ASSOCIATED WINDS AT DELTA ARE ALSO DIMINISHING. EXPECT
LAST ADVISORIES FOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS IN ZONES 219 AND 220 WILL COME
DOWN BY MID-DAY AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT ONCE IT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A MAJOR
CHINOOK EVENT.

IN THE LONGER TERM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
OF BUILDING A NARROW BUT NEAR-RECORD 500MB RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS AN AMAZING BLOCKING PATTERN WITH VERY
TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE CUT-OFF FEATURES...BUT GOOD MODEL
TO MODEL CONTINUITY IS HARD TO IGNORE. THIS PATTERN OFFERS A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVE ACTION IN THE BERING SEA...AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE INTERIOR WITH SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

ES NOV 07