Storm Warning 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2007, 11:00 AM AKST (20:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2008, 6:00 AM AKST

In force

19 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312348
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND WEAKEN TUE. A 978 MB LOW 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AS 982 MB
WED AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA TUE NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AS 978 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 31, 10:00 AM AKST, 1 hour earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE STILL PERFORMING WELL.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PAST 60 HOURS AND
EVEN THEN THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SHOW STOPPERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH IT. OUT WEST THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS GOOD BUT THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A LITTLE WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOWS IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE
MODELS CONVERGE ON A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVING
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
GOOD...THEY ARE JUST STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THE COMPLEX LOW
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIGGEST WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS A
LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN AND NEAR THE GULF AS WELL AS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP A DOUBLE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE MAIN LOW HEADS NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY
CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
HAPPENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGE NEAR 55N 145W THIS AFTERNOON. DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.
    IN THE WEST A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AS A MODERATE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT.
    THE JET STREAM REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
JUST THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THE EDGE OF
IT. THE JET CURRENTLY COMES OFF OF JAPAN AND THEN INTO THE LARGE LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE WEST WITH JUST
A SLIGHT DRIFT SOUTH IN THE JET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
THE PORTION IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO CANADA
LEAVING THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE STATE FOR
AWHILE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL FALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CAN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND TURN ALL
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THE SNOW ADVISORY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW IN THE ILIAMNA AREA SHOULD CUT OFF
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE PATTERN OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND 850 MB
THERMAL PACKING OVER COOK INLET THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY IN
COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH GULF OR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. IT STILL IS A LITTLE EARLY TO CALL IN A SURE
THING BUT THE PATTERN SETTING UP IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 140 150 155 170 172 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 138 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 155 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 07

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every storm warning in 2007

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.