Storm Warning 218, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312348
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND WEAKEN TUE. A 978 MB LOW 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AS 982 MB
WED AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA TUE NIGHT WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AS 978 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY FOR AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN...THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY NICE AGREEMENT. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA THEY ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IS WHEN AND WHERE A TRIPLE POINT MIGHT
DEVELOP LONG THE FRONT IN THE BERING SEA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO DEVELOP
ONE IN THE ADAK AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND NAM PLACE A WEAK
ONE WELL SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL MAKE A LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME FOR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND HAVE LITTLE OVERALL EFFECT AS ALL
MODELS DISSIPATE THEIR TRIPLE POINTS TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS IS RATHER CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTION
WITH THIS LOW AND THIS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THREE TO FIVE
DAYS OUT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN LOW EFFECTING THE WEATHER TODAY IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE
PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW IS WELL EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND IS SEEN IN SATELLITE STARTING AROUND 40N AND HEADING
UP THE 155W MERIDIAN INTO THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCED SOME SNOW THIS
MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS NOW
EXITING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA.
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEAS AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH ARE ALREADY
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
THE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA DUE TO THE LOW SOUTH OF THERE AND
THE WEATHER FRONT STATIONARY OVER THEM. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 40 TO
60 MPH WITH SAND POINT AND COLD BAY BOTH EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES TO
ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW IN THESE WINDS.
KODIAK...SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE
WILL SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE OVERRIDES
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KODIAK ISLANDS
WHERE THE WARMER AIR IN THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TO THE SNOW TO TURN TO
RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE ISLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DISSIPATES TUESDAY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY
AND COLD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE AND A COLD
TROUGH ALOFT. AFTER THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
MODELS FORMING A PERSISTENT WEAK LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172.
         STORM 175 176.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 155 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 07