Storm Warning 213, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 290026
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 990 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF
CORDOVA AND WEAKEN TO 998 MB SAT NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A
1005 MB LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST TO 450 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 989
MB WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 25 KT WEST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. SEAS TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N WIND 25 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS TO
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...E TO NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE
EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY . 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. AREAS OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT...STRONGEST SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS TO 5 FT. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY.

.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS PERFORMING REASONABLY WELL. PREFERRED GFS OVERALL...BUT NAM
HANDLING SOME FEATURES NEAR TERRAIN BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE YUKON AND BARROW AND
INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. MAIN JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
RUNNING ALONG ABOUT 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...ARCING OVER A STRONG
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THE ARCTIC JET IS APPROXIMATELY
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THEN SPLITS AS IT
HITS THE BLOCKING HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS IN THE ARCTIC JET AR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALASKA. ONE
IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND STALLING...ONE IS NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOFS...AND ONE SOUTH OF COLD BAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE KODIAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT TODAY AS IT PRESSES INTO
THE RIDGE. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT
ANCHORAGE TODAY...THEN FIZZLE OUT TONIGHT. THE COLD BAY SYSTEM WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE PENINSULA TODAY...THEN RACE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT
IS SOMEWHAT INVOLVED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM. THE PRIBILOF LOW WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH...WITH SHOWERS LIBERALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LAST SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO A PATTERN
CHANGE. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THIS SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP...PULLING
COLD AIR FROM SIBERIA AND TAPPING THE JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL INITIATE A SURFACE LOW BOMBING OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY AND
BECOMING A MAJOR STEERING LOW. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME A FULL LATITUDE FEATURE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA. A WEAKER RIDGE WILL FORM BEHIND
THIS LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL FINISH THE PROGRESSION FROM
THE CURRENT ZONAL FLOW TO A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 138 150 155 170 172 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 160 180 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 07