Gale Warning 940, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 290026
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 59N 149W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 60N 145W AND WEAKEN TO
998 MB SAT NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A 1005 MB LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 51N
155W AND STRENGTHEN TO 989 MB WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO
16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 291240
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-300300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 991 MB LOW AT 57N 148W
WILL DRIFT EAST TO 59N 140W AT 1012 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. ON SUN AFTERNOON A 989 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR 51N
160W. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 969 MB AT 49N 149W BY LATE SUN
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W TO NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT WEST OF 147W. VARIABLE WINDS 20 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W TO NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 300031
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-301500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 58N 148W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 140W AND WEAKEN TO
1013 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUN EVENING. A 992 MB LOW
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 50N 159W SUN EVENING
THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE 960 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 50N 147W MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-301500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-301500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
TO 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 301230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-310300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 1002 MB LOW AT 59N 144W
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW AT 52N 164W WILL
MOVE TO 52N 160W THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH A STORM FORCE 975 MB
NEAR 48N 148W LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO 962 MB AT
51N 145W BY LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-310300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-310300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OVERALL WE WILL BE GOING WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BECAUSE ITS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER HEMISPHERIC
MODELS THAN THE NAM. THE MODELS STILL HAVE A RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
ISSUE, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST. THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
BERING SEA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS BRISTOL BAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AT SURFACE...
A MODERATE LOW NEAR KODIAK IS TAKING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN
PROGGED WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT REMAINING OVER THE GULF
STRETCHING EAST AND WEAKENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND THE ADJACENT COAST. A
WEAKER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER MODERATE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS DRIFTING EAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW A BAROCLINIC AREA LINKING THE BRISTOL BAY LOW TO THE ONE
IN THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF...
THE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY
THEN DRIFT ONTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH A POSSIBLE WEAKER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS OVER KODIAK WILL END FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET FRIDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL CREATE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY THE CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS OVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY. AN AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD CLEAR OUT CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION BUT VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
TO JUST WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND SATURDAY. A SYSTEM RIDING ALONG
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO DROP
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THAT PART OF THE CHAIN FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
TO 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SATURDAY WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY THEN TURN NORTHEAST TO LIE ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SAT NIGHT WILL
WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED THE EAST AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF SUNDAY THEN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
      ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BRISTOL BAY.
MARINE...STORM 132
         GALE 120, 130, 138, 140, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07