Storm Warning 128, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170809 AAC
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1010 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

UPDATED ZONE 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 960 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WEAKENS TO 993 MB SAT NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
630 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT E WIND 50 KT EAST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 22 FT EXCEPT 28 FT EAST OF CAPE CLEARE. RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E WIND 45 KT EAST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
630 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
630 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
630 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...
  WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FEET. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
  EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...
  NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 55
KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
  SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT...NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO
55 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
  SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1010 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND 
NEAR SEWARD AT 994 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. W OF CAPE CLEARE...N WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT SOUTH END OF INLET.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...BOTH NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.  GFS STARTS A LITTLE DEEPER WHICH VERIFIES WITH BUOYS.
BOTH MODELS MOVE THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO PWS SATURDAY EVENING. AT
500 MB GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE NW ON SUNDAY..
THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF AK.  THE NAM HAS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SW AK WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TO
THE NORTH- TEND TO AGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.

IN THE BERING SEA REGION HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING
A ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...PLENTY OF NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE AK PEN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO
STRATIFORM SNOW OR RAIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE WINDS IN COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. AREAS OF SNOW ON SUNDAY AS 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOUTHCENTRAL...CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LOW CENTER TRACKS TOWARD PWS.  EXPECTING SOME SNOW OVER A
SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...COOLER IN AREAS WITH THIN CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING A RESIDUAL WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AK SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG
155W AND MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF AK MONDAY EVENING.  GFS TRACKS THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO PWS TUESDAY NIGHT.  CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMS
OUT BETWEEN 960 AND 965 MB AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF AK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FILLING THEREAFTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 352 150 155 160 165 180 BERING OFF SHORE
         HEAVY FREZ SPRAY 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 07