Gale Warning 860, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 15 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE. 12Z
INITIALIZATION 6 HR FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH STORM CENTER
APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA. FORECAST THROUGH SAT MAINTAINS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. DIFFERENCES CROP ON ON HANDLING OF POTENTIAL
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH GULF SUN AND APPROACHING
STORM CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAKENING WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE COPPER
RIVER/SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE W-SW AND WEAKEN. DEVELOPING LOW CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC
DEEPENS INTO THE 950S AS IT MOVES TO THE SE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT.
CENTER SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FRI MORNING AS IT BECOMES STACKED WITH UPPER
CENTER AND FILL TO THE LOWER 980S N THE NORTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.
GFS MODEL TAKES CENTER INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN. NOT SO SURE
ABOUT THIS. UKMET TENDS TO HOLD CENTER FURTHER SOUTH...THIS MAY BE
MORE REASONABLE. BERING SEA RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS WITH A WEAK HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC SAT NIGHT.
MODERATE WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI AND TO
EASTERN BERING SEA...ALONG SW AK COAST..TO SOUTH OF THE AK PEN EARLY
SUN. TRIPLE POINT WILL LIKELY FORM UNDER WESTERLY JET SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN SUN MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUN EVENING. RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUN NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...WINDS WILL ARE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE INTENSE LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT GALES AND STORMS IN GULF MARINE AREAS WITH CENTER.
ALSO EXPECT STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY CHANNELED AREAS...ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF...SOUTHCENTRAL...NORTH GULF COAST...AND ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER INTO SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST AREAS BY SAT NIGHT AS
GULF CENTER WEAKENS AND AS TRIPLE POINT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN
LOOSENS GRADIENT.

.WEST...GENERAL BRISK NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE SW
MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA AS STRONG LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE
GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT STRONG WIND HEADLINES TO REMAIN UP FOR THE
DELTA...BRISTOL BAY...AK PEN...AND EASTERN BERING SEA PUBLIC ZONES
THROUGH THROUGH FRI. STORMS LIKELY OVER MARINE AREAS SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN WITH STORM GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SAT AS THE GULF WEAKENS AND THE BERING
SEA RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS SAT. GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
FRONTAL ZONE PICKS UP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...EAST
ALEUTIANS...AK PEN SAT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SNOW AHEAD OF FRONT BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN. AFTER PASSAGE...FAIR COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CHANGE THE RAIN
SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 150. GALES 132 138 155 160 165 172 175 176 AND 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07