Storm Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070005
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND WED AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE NIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WED THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...STRONG NPAC JET AND DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA ARE STILL CREATING A CONSISTENCY PROBLEM FOR THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BEYOND 60 HOUR. SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WITHIN REASON. EC/UKMET/GFS ALL ARE SHOWING THE SAME BASIC SOLUTIONS
THRU 72 HRS. WILL KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM THU AND BEYOND ON
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS...

.EAST...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COOK INLET AND
THE NORTH GULF. HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NPAC MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
ON TUE. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA TUE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT...THEN
INLAND WED. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS AND GALES TO SPREAD TO
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND TUE. STRONG GAPS WINDS LIKELY
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST AREAS BY TUE NIGHT
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN WED AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...STRONG LOW MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT EARLY TUE MORNING AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS UP
SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND OVER THE SW ALASKA AK COAST ON TUE AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INLAND TUE NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE AK PEN
TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW AND SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY AND SW AK ON
TUE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW INLAND SW AK...WITH A
MIX OR RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE LIKELY
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW IN INTERIOR SW AK. A SECONDARY
CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT ARRIVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY IN THE LOWER 980S WED. EXPECT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST EARLY WED MORNING. OLD PARENT
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS SOME AND GENERALLY REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WED. YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT/THU. MODELS STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
POSITION AND INTENSITY. THIS LIKELY TO REMAIN A PROBLEM UNTIL CLOSER
TO EVENT. THE GFS/UKMET MIX WITH WEAKER LOW MAY BE BETTER SOLUTION
THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES ALL OUT WITH A 960S CENTER WED NIGHT NEAR
UNIMAK PASS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS: 138 150 AND 155.
         GALES: 120 130 132 140 160 165 176 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07