Storm Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 070058
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL DISSIPATE 130 NM WEST
OF CAPE NEWENHAM TUE NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WED AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE
110 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WED NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW 420
NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR
AND STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB WED NIGHT AND TO 80 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
NEWENHAM WITH A 960 MB CENTER THU AFTERNOON.  
$$

PKZ150-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-071500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-071500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-071500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH
OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. ELSEWHERE...NW WIND 25
KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-071500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-071500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-071500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...STRONG NPAC JET AND DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA ARE STILL CREATING A CONSISTENCY PROBLEM FOR THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BEYOND 60 HOUR. SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WITHIN REASON. EC/UKMET/GFS ALL ARE SHOWING THE SAME BASIC SOLUTIONS
THRU 72 HRS. WILL KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM THU AND BEYOND ON
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS...

.EAST...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COOK INLET AND
THE NORTH GULF. HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NPAC MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
ON TUE. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA TUE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT...THEN
INLAND WED. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS AND GALES TO SPREAD TO
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND TUE. STRONG GAPS WINDS LIKELY
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST AREAS BY TUE NIGHT
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN WED AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...STRONG LOW MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT EARLY TUE MORNING AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS UP
SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND OVER THE SW ALASKA AK COAST ON TUE AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INLAND TUE NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE AK PEN
TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW AND SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY AND SW AK ON
TUE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW INLAND SW AK...WITH A
MIX OR RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE LIKELY
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW IN INTERIOR SW AK. A SECONDARY
CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT ARRIVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY IN THE LOWER 980S WED. EXPECT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST EARLY WED MORNING. OLD PARENT
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS SOME AND GENERALLY REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WED. YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT/THU. MODELS STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
POSITION AND INTENSITY. THIS LIKELY TO REMAIN A PROBLEM UNTIL CLOSER
TO EVENT. THE GFS/UKMET MIX WITH WEAKER LOW MAY BE BETTER SOLUTION
THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES ALL OUT WITH A 960S CENTER WED NIGHT NEAR
UNIMAK PASS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS: 138 150 AND 155.
         GALES: 120 130 132 140 160 165 176 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07