Storm Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051543 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
645 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

UPDATE TO ZONES 130 140 AND 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 425 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
75 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK AT 977 MB TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TUE
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
645 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASING E 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
645 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 20 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
645 AM AST MON NOV 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
MODEL SHIFT HAS BEEN TAKING DEVELOPING NPAC LOW CENTER INTO BRISTOL
BAY TUE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF TUE NIGHT.
UKMET/EC/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT (72HR). BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRONG
WESTERLY JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE FORECASTING SURFACE
FEATURES TOUGH BEYOND. SO...KEPT CHANGES TO MINIMUM AFTER WED.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CENTER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WED MORNING. SHORT WAVE
EXITING BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MON. A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER SW AK MON EVENING SPREADS TO OVER THE
CENTRAL MAINLAND/GULF TUE. BERING SEA TROUGH DIGS EAST OVER BRISTOL
BAY TUE NIGHT WITH A CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR THE PRIBILOFS. WESTERLY
JET HOLDS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THU MORNING.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY...TO JUST WEST OF KODIAK THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN/SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL MON NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
LIKELY TO HAVE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH SLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. DEVELOPING NPAC LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING WILL BRING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL TO
SOUTHCENTRAL/COASTAL MARINES TUE THROUGH WED. EXPECT WARMER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY WINDS WITH COASTAL AREAS SOUTHERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN.

.WEST...UNSETTLED WX WITH RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SW ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA. EXPECT FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...EAST BRISTOL BAY
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW CENTER MOVES TO
NEAR SAND POINT MON NIGHT AND THEN RE-CURVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
TUE NIGHT. THIS CENTER LIKELY TO BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
AK PEN BEGINNING MON EVENING AND SPREADING TO BRISTOL BAY OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT WILL NOT SEE WARM AIR SPREAD VERY FAR INLAND SW AK AHEAD OF
FRONT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW INLAND WITH RAIN OVER THE AK
PEN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST MON NIGHT/TUE. RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS HOLDING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07