Small Craft Advisory 931, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON NOV 5 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...STRONG NPAC JET AND DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA ARE STILL CREATING A CONSISTENCY PROBLEM FOR THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BEYOND 60 HOUR. SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WITHIN REASON. EC/UKMET/GFS ALL ARE SHOWING THE SAME BASIC SOLUTIONS
THRU 72 HRS. WILL KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM THU AND BEYOND ON
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS...

.EAST...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COOK INLET AND
THE NORTH GULF. HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NPAC MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
ON TUE. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA TUE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT...THEN
INLAND WED. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS AND GALES TO SPREAD TO
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND TUE. STRONG GAPS WINDS LIKELY
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST AREAS BY TUE NIGHT
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN WED AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...STRONG LOW MOVES TO NEAR SAND POINT EARLY TUE MORNING AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS UP
SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND OVER THE SW ALASKA AK COAST ON TUE AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INLAND TUE NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE AK PEN
TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW AND SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY AND SW AK ON
TUE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW INLAND SW AK...WITH A
MIX OR RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE LIKELY
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW IN INTERIOR SW AK. A SECONDARY
CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT ARRIVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY IN THE LOWER 980S WED. EXPECT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST EARLY WED MORNING. OLD PARENT
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS SOME AND GENERALLY REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WED. YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT/THU. MODELS STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
POSITION AND INTENSITY. THIS LIKELY TO REMAIN A PROBLEM UNTIL CLOSER
TO EVENT. THE GFS/UKMET MIX WITH WEAKER LOW MAY BE BETTER SOLUTION
THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES ALL OUT WITH A 960S CENTER WED NIGHT NEAR
UNIMAK PASS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS: 138 150 AND 155.
         GALES: 120 130 132 140 160 165 176 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07