Small Craft Advisory 973, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AT 980 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
CAPE DOUGLAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
445 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...UPDATE...

SNOW TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING OVER ANCHORAGE. STORM TOTALS WILL BE
ROLLING IN SOON...CURRENTLY WORKING ON A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WITH TOTALS AREA WIDE. THE NWS OFFICE ON SAND LAKE ROAD RECEIVED 4.1
INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.

UPPER TROF HAS SWEPT THE SURFACE LOW INTO PWS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS IT CROSSES THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECTING PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKING GOOD AND AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HINTS AT...WILL BE
WATCHING WARM AIR MIGRATING NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND STORMS BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE GULF AND
MIXED PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR.

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...

AFTER A SNOWY START TO THIS WEEK A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR HAS NEARLY PHASED WITH THE
GULF SYSTEM AND BOTH ARE MOVING BASICALLY NORTHEAST. SNOW..2 TO 5
INCHES ON AVERAGE..NOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS ENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
HAS SLOWED ITS MOVEMENT IN THE NORTHERN COOK INLET AREA AS THE GULF
LOW IS PROVING TO BE A HARD ITEM TO KICK OUT.

AREAS OF SNOW ARE FALLING LIGHTLY THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS A FRONT
DIES OUT THERE. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THIS THING IS STRONG ENUF FOR
SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST JET AND ASSOCIATED DOWNWARD AIR MOTION ARE ABOUT TO END
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE NOW ON THE INCREASE KODIAK ISLAND
AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST.

RATHER STRONG STORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS IT
GETS INSIDE 160W EARLY MONDAY. WINDY WET WEATHER DEVELOPS KODIAK
ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS PLACE A 975 MB LOW CENTER IN BRISTOL
BAY NEAR 160W TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL GOOD WARM AIR
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND RISING SNOW LEVELS IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THERE
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL PRODUCE VERY MILD CHINOOK TYPE WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN AND EVEN INTERIOR ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL SNOW
COVER COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY EATEN AWAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LOOK FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOFS WEST
THIS WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS KEEP TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR POSSIBLY THE REST OF NOVEMBER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 155
         GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 170 175 176.
FIRE...NONE.

DPERCY NOV 07