Small Craft Advisory 893, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 251904 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

UPDATE TO ZONE 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-260200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY NOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-260200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1100 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15
KT IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALGIN
ISLAND NORTH...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO E WIND 50 KT BECOMING GUSTS TO SE 35
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE NCEP AND UKMET/EC MODEL INIALIZATIONS
AND FORECAST THROUGH FRI ARE REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
USED GENERALLY

.ANALYSIS
.EAST...OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
SPREADS SNOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN LATE NIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND
THE SUSITNNA VALLEY TONIGHT. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY GET
RAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
EARLY THU AND TO OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AND EASTERN GULF FRI MORNING. EXPECT WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE GALES OVER SEVERAL COASTAL MARINE AREAS AND THE GULF
OF ALASKA IN GENERAL BEGINNING EARLY THU. HIGH WIND WATCH CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER ZONE 101 (TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS) THU WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD END AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND FRI MORNING. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE PCPN AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO RAIN OR A MIX ON THU. EXPECT GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI AND A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT.

.WEST...WARM FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS AFTERNOON IS NEAR ILIAMNA WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN WILL GENERALLY SPREAD TO MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY BY THIS
EVENING. SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAYLOR MOUNTAIN AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
OVERRUNNING IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT.

THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A 978
MB LOW OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVING SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
FRI. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF SAINT PAUL TONIGHT AND DRIFTS
SW AS YET ANOTHER LOW FORMS SE OF SAINT PAUL AND MOVES NORTH OF
UNIMAK ISLAND THU NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH LATE
THU. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA THU THRU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH THU FOR ZONE 101.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 175 176 180
185.

RMC OCT 07