Gale Warning 765, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260020 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
420 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

AMENDED ZONES 121 132 138 140 141 

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A 998 MB
LOW MOVES TO 40 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
420 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
415 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.

.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
415 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
420 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALGIN ISLAND NORTH...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT SEAS 11 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
420 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT7...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WX PICTURE THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN BERING. A WARM FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE CENTRAL KENAI
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
BACK ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS AND TIMING ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BERING SEA LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH SNOW
CONTINUING IN THE UPPER SUSITNA VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF
RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT BACK ALONG THE AK PENINSULA WILL LIFT NE AND CROSS
KODIAK ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING PLENTY OF RAIN AND WIND.
SPEAKING OF WIND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT PRODUCING WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR LOCAL MODEL HINTS AT WINDS UP
TO 85 MPH PEAKING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL WARM THIS MORNING
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL FALL AS RAIN.

THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT
SENDING SEVERAL FRONTS INTO THE GULF. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TRAJECTORY...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WET WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY
REGIME FURTHER INLAND.

GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SW ALASKA DRYING OUT A BIT
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A MONSTER LOW
SKIRTING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUN/MON...BUT THERE IS MUCH MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND ESPECIALLY INTENSITY. AT THIS TIME WE
WILL SCALE BACK ON THE STORMS INTENSITY TO CONVEY OUR UNCERTAINTY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM 120.
         GALE 125 130 132 140 150 172 175 176 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA