Small Craft Advisory 892, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251154
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 80 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL WILL MERGE WITH A 978 MB LOW
100 NM EAST OF SHEMYA FRIDAY MORNING 100 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL. THIS
LOW WILL DRIFT TO 50 NM NORTH OF SAND POINT SATURDAY MORNING AS 993
MB. 
$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.   

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE NCEP AND UKMET/EC MODEL INIALIZATIONS
AND FORECAST THROUGH FRI ARE REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
USED GENERALLY

.ANALYSIS
.EAST...OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
SPREADS SNOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN LATE NIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND
THE SUSITNNA VALLEY TONIGHT. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY GET
RAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
EARLY THU AND TO OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AND EASTERN GULF FRI MORNING. EXPECT WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE GALES OVER SEVERAL COASTAL MARINE AREAS AND THE GULF
OF ALASKA IN GENERAL BEGINNING EARLY THU. HIGH WIND WATCH CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER ZONE 101 (TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS) THU WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD END AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND FRI MORNING. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE PCPN AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO RAIN OR A MIX ON THU. EXPECT GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI AND A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT.

.WEST...WARM FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS AFTERNOON IS NEAR ILIAMNA WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN WILL GENERALLY SPREAD TO MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY BY THIS
EVENING. SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAYLOR MOUNTAIN AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
OVERRUNNING IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT.

THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A 978
MB LOW OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVING SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
FRI. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF SAINT PAUL TONIGHT AND DRIFTS
SW AS YET ANOTHER LOW FORMS SE OF SAINT PAUL AND MOVES NORTH OF
UNIMAK ISLAND THU NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH LATE
THU. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA THU THRU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH THU FOR ZONE 101.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 175 176 180
185.

RMC OCT 07